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The First Real Tightening Test (opens the original)
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The End Of An EraSome bittersweet news before this week’s issue. This Bitcoin Deep Dive will be my final issue. While this has been a great intellectual pursuit, and I’m grateful to everyone who has read along, I own a business outside of this newsletter that needs my full attention. All premium subscriptions will be canceled effective immediately, so no one will be charged again. I of course remain bullish long-term on Bitcoin and will still be keeping up with markets, so feel free to stay in c
Bitcoin Deep Dive #75 (opens the original)
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The Fed Talked Tough At Jackson HoleBitcoin’s first post-squeeze test came from the Federal Reserve. At Jackson Hole, Chair Kevin Warsh argued inflation remains too persistent to declare victory, with headline PCE above the 2% target and many underlying categories hotter than 3% annualized, and signaled modest near-term tightening may be needed to rebuild credibility before any meaningful easing later. Ordinarily that message punishes a liquidity-sensitive asset. Instead, Bitcoin held near $79K,
Bitcoin Deep Dive #74 (opens the original)
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Hello, quick note here. This week's Bitcoin Deep Dive is completely free. We want this one in front of as many readers as possible. Future editions will return to our usual format. Enjoy!Treasury Lit the FuseBitcoin spent the last several months in the low $60Ks, its 30-day price range compressed to 5.6%, futures exposure near record extremes, and a wall of short liquidations between $65K and $67K. On August 19, one day after the 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.34%, its highest since 2007, the
Bitcoin Deep Dive #73 (opens the original)
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The Risk-On Turn Is StickingLast week’s regime change held. Wednesday’s July inflation report showed prices ticked up only marginally after June’s first decline in six years, easing pressure on a Fed where three officials dissented on July 29 in favor of raising rates. Meanwhile the yen fell nearly a percent to 159, and because Japan holds more than $1.1 trillion in US Treasuries, its need for US dollars keeps markets expecting the Fed to expand the FIMA facility, which lets foreign central bank
Bitcoin Deep Dive #72 (opens the original)
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Easier Money Without a Rate CutJapan has a problem. Its currency keeps weakening, and defending the yen requires US dollars. Japan holds more than $1.1 trillion in US Treasuries, so the obvious move is to sell some. But dumping Treasuries would push long-term US yields even higher, the same pressure that shoved markets into STAGFLATION last week. This week Washington offered a different path. A Fed facility known as FIMA lets foreign central banks pledge their Treasuries for dollars instead of s
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