N. Baratte - TechStock01
I'm Nicolas Baratte, Tech equity analyst for 25 years, focusing on Tech, Semi, Hyperscale, Asia. Company & Industry analysis. I’ve worked on the sell-side (JPM, CLSA) and buy-side (Tiger, Prudential). Now on Substack!
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 8
- Latest publication
- Jul 31, 2026
- Audience
- Checking…
- Earliest in this view
- Jul 15, 2026
Latest issues
Amazon 2Q26: after Google and Microsoft, another Cloud acceleration – growth higher – margins higher. (opens the original)
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Like for Microsoft, this is probably the quarter that demonstrates the impact of AI Capex on AWS growth and margins. 2Q26 revenue up 20% YoY. Operating profits up 43% YoY. The revenue backlog is literally exploding, up 150% YoY.AWS Annualized Run rate is at $169bn. CEO suggests that AWS could become a $ 1 trillion business.Consensus could be a bit low on revenue growth, high-teens looks more likely than low-teens. Margins expansion is ok. Stock trading at 23.4x 2027 EPS, 18x 2028.<a class="butto
Samsung Elec 2Q26: record revenue, record profit. Management says memory shortage deepening into 2027 and 2028. (opens the original)
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Management says that Memory supply shortage will be worse in 2027 than in 2026 and will persist through 2028. 3Q26 HBM4 revenue will more than triple QoQ.Memory Long Term Agreements signed with the 5 largest data centre customers. Final stage negotiations with 5 major AI customers. Target coverage: 60% to 70% of total planned capacity. Same as Micron and SK Hynix: can LTAs convert a cyclical business into a backlog business?Samsung Elec trades at 4.4x 2026 EPS, 3.1x 2027. That’s close to ridicul
Microsoft: Cloud and AI revenue accelerating, Capex will increase in FY27 (opens the original)
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4Q26 (Jun-26): small beat but the news is Azure: revenue up 43% YoY, from previous quarters 40%, next quarter guided at 45% growth YoY. Azure passed $100bn annual revenue in FY26, up 41%.Commercial RPO (Remaining Performance Obligation) is $678bn, +84% YoY. The sequential increase came entirely from customers outside frontier model labs. Microsoft is trying to explain that its Cloud / AI growth does not (mostly) depend on OpenAI or Anthropic.Capacity demand still exceeds supply, despite increase
SK Hynix: a little miss and a big correction (opens the original)
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2Q was a small miss, 5% below Consensus, as DRAM ASP increased less than Commodity DRAM. That’s mostly because of Long Term Agreements that are “designed to address price volatility”.Add to that some timing issues, HBM4 ramp, tech migrations to 1c-node for DRAM and 321-layer NAND and Management says that 2H26 will see 1) higher bit growth and 2) higher blended ASP.In the meantime, the stock is crashing and trading at 5x 2026 EPS, 3.4x 2027.<a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https
Intel 2Q26: big beat led by AI data center and improving foundry execution (opens the original)
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Big beat. Revenue up 25% YoY driven by AI CPU demand. Gross Margin above 40%, on improving pricing, manufacturing yields and loading, insourcing. 2Q26 is a major break thru for Intel.2026 Capex increased slightly from ~18bn to above $20bn. 2027 capex up “significantly”. Intel is now showing real progress in yields (Intel 4, 3, 18A), leading to insourcing (away from TSMC), hence higher margins.Following a big beat and big guidance, 2026 Consensus forecasts can be revised up by ~20%. The bigger un
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