HeyJaredmoontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
Applying financial theory to life in real-time «math, education, parenting, games, business, and occasionally hair bands🎸»
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- Sep 27, 2026
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soulcraft (opens the original)
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Programming note: Moontower will be back next Sunday. I’ll be in Houston this week for HOOD Summit 2026, Robinhood’s annual investor and trader conference. If you’re going, come see me.<img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="597
the math of why “crappy” investments aren’t cheaper (opens the original)
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Friends,Back in May, I shared a Jane Street-style interview question I found online.Flip a fair coin 100 times. Call the number of heads H and the number of tails T. What’s E[H × T]?I multiplied the expected number of heads by the expected number of tails to get 2,500. I flubbed the answer because, while the flips are independent, the totals aren’t. Every additional head means one fewer tail.There’s a missing covariance term in the way I set up the problem.If you’re interested in the solution an
who are the rich people, factorio in print, 9 scary words (opens the original)
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Friends,Amazing munchies to snack on this week…Listen🎙️There’s a Mind-Boggling Number of Rich People in America (Bloomberg Odd Lots)About:In 2014, the economists Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick were asked by the Treasury to conduct a study on the tax burden of private business owners. It was tricky to figure out how much these sorts of business owners — auto dealers, contractors, the like — actually owed in taxes: After Reagan's 1
blindsided (opens the original)
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In this issue:blindsided“end behavior”Friends,BlindsidedMy cousin Nicole just had her first child in the past year and is now compiling resources for new parents in light of where her attention has obviously been.In our family chat, she asked:When you became a new parent, what blindsided you the most?I’ll share my answer, which I qualify with both the awareness that having a child is a gamble on many levels and that conception itself is a miracle and should never be taken for granted. What was I
trade prospecting ahead of the Fed meeting (opens the original)
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Programming Note: Mid-week publishing schedule is bumped by a day to get this out before the Fed today. The next post will be Sunday. Friends,Yesterday’s post offered some market thoughts and the following backdrop heading into the Fed meeting after the Jackson Hole Keynote 3 weeks ago:The chance of a 25 bps hike shot from 35% to 90%The 10-year yield is up 20 bpsOil is up 25% The 30-year yield is flattishEquity indices are down le
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