HeyJaredMondayswife
Economist (PhD). I model macro-econ/financial phenomena into human behavior dynamics. Mapping the structural mechanics of relationships so you don't have to
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
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- Sep 27, 2026
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- Jul 3, 2026
Latest issues
The Person You Are Is Not a Parameter: Markov Chains, Bad Decisions, and the Probability You Become Someone Else (opens the original)
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I am not a neuroscientist, psychologist, behaviouralist, or relationship coach. I am an economist with an Economics degree, experience working with economic datasets, Stata, heartbreak, and a citation style.We had just spent an entire chapter establishing that an estimate is not a fact, that samples move, that standard errors exist specifically to ruin the confidence of anyone who has become emotionally attached to a coefficient, and that eventually we would have to answer the obvious next quest
This is Regression Not Repression: What Households Hear When the Central Bank Speaks (opens the original)
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The last essay ended with one relationship still breathing. Every grand claim about confidence steering the economy had died under its own robustness checks, and almost nothing was left standing. What survived was a single connection between a rate and a mood that carries a pulse too faint to trust and too steady to ignore. I promised to come back and take that pulse properly. This is me coming back.Just in case you have not read the first essay in this series, please do so. Thank
The People You Date Are Not the Population: Samples, Estimators, and the Dangerous Confidence of Small Numbers (opens the original)
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I am not a neuroscientist, psychologist, behavioralist, or relationship coach. I am an economist with an Economics degree, experience working with economic datasets, Stata, heartbreak, and a very strict citation style.if you read the last chapter, you know we spent a lot of time dissecting random variables. We found its center, measured its spread, figured out which way the whole mess leaned, and poked at the tails to see what was waiting to kill us. That was the easy part.and i normally would s
What the Model Missed Series 2: The Model Prices the Average. It Cannot Feel the Distance From It. (opens the original)
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I read one quantitative paper every day (as part of my day job) and wrote one note about what it found and what it missed. I aimed for thirty papers in thirty days. That’s why it is called “monthly.” LOLThe papers came from the National Bureau of Economic Research, SSRN, and peer-reviewed journals. The behavioural concepts came from the same seven blocks as always: how beliefs form and fail, how decisions deviate, how markets move, how households behave, how policy transmits, how macro cycles em
Sexy Bell Curves: Pinned Indexes, Fat Tails, and Grumpy Humans (opens the original)
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I am not a neuroscientist, psychologist, behavioralist, or relationship coach. I am an economist with an Economics degree, experience working with economic datasets, Stata, heartbreak, and a citation style.In the last chapter, we collapsed a whole distribution down to a single number, the expected value, its center of gravity. We treated the mean as the one figure you need to navigate a world run by chance.But if you run your life or your portfolio off the center of gravity alone, you are settin
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