HeyJaredModern Value Investing
A finance professor investing his own money in great businesses at attractive prices, sharing in-depth research and transparent portfolio decisions.
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- Sep 6, 2026
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- Jul 5, 2026
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Amazon’s AI Economics (opens the original)
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In “Investing in the Age of AI: Too Late or only the Beginning?”, I argued that rising share prices of AI stocks tell only half the story. The other half is the rising earnings power of the businesses underneath them. AI is creating demand for applications, models, computing infrastructure and chips that can reinforce one another.Amazon deserves a closer look through that framework. It can earn money supplying AI infrastructure through AWS, participate in the value of leading model companies thr
Investing in the Age of AI: Too Late or only the Beginning? (opens the original)
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As promised, it is time for a follow-up on my personal all-time-favorite Substack article: “Investing in the Age of AI,” published on April 7, 2025. At its heart was the key insight that AI had created a self-reinforcing flywheel. Better applications attract more users, generate more data and create greater demand for cloud computing. That cloud demand drives investment in increasingly powerful chips, which in turn enables better models and entirely new applications. Each revolution of the wheel
2026 Q2 Earnings Updates: WeightWatchers, Shift4, Bumble (opens the original)
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Going into last week, Bumble, Shift4 and WeightWatchers were my three largest holdings. All three reported earnings, and the market reactions were dramatic, but my own conclusions did not always follow the tape. I found Bumble’s call reassuring despite the selloff, added to Shift4 after its 23% decline, and sharply reduced WeightWatchers even as the shares rallied 18%. Below, I explain what changed in each thesis, revisit the valuations, and detail the resulting portfolio moves. Read more
Did the Research Deliver? A Four-Year Review of Every Published Investment Idea (opens the original)
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A Strong Hit Rate and Several Exceptional WinnersOver the past four years, I have published 30 company and thematic investment write-ups on Modern Value Investing. 21 of the 30 published ideas cleared my general stock-market hurdle of 7%.14 of 30 cleared my personal hurdle of 15%.Six investments became multibaggers, compared with four currently down by more than 40%.Restricting to write-ups older than 12 months gives 15 of 21, so the hit rate holds at ~71% even excluding the young ideas that hav
Salesforce Can Lose the Interface and Still Win (opens the original)
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Salesforce is cheap potentially. The share price is down 38.3% year to date, and down 55% since its all time high in December 2024. Essentially, the share price of Salesforce today ($163) is flat since almost 8 years (September 2018).In fiscal year 2018, Salesforce generated $10.5 billion in revenue. In the current financial year, Salesforce is expected to generate $46.1 billion in revenue. Revenue is up 4.4x, but the share price is flat. Perhaps Salesforce was expensive in 2018, but it certainl
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