Modad Geopolitics
Clear, concise and commercial geopolitical analysis from Firas Modad. Focused on the Middle East and great power conflict.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 17
- Latest publication
- Sep 30, 2026
- Audience
- Checking…
- Earliest in this view
- Aug 11, 2026
Latest issues
Flydubai Attempted Hijacking (opens the original)
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Initial reports suggest that an Omani first officer tried to crash a Flydubai Boeing 737 Max aircraft (flight number FZ 1073) heading from Dubai (DXB) to Tel Aviv (TLV) after stabbing the Indian pilot. Videos from the incident shows a man in a pilot’s uniform bleeding and on the verge of losing consciousness. The attacker was reportedly stopped, though it is not clear by whom - passengers, another person in the cockpit, or security. <a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://subs
Update on Fairford (opens the original)
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Police released on bail five individuals within 36 hours of arresting them on explosives and terrorism charges as they were in close proximity to a Royal Air Force Fairford base. Authorities said that the five individuals resided in London. The eyewitness who saw the men claimed that there were eight or ten individuals - authorities only arrested five. American President Donald Trump criticised British authorities for the suspects’ release. He stated, again, that the group was under surveillance
Iran and the attempted attack on RAF Fairford (opens the original)
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In the early hours of 27 September, British authorities announced that they had foiled an attempt to attack Royal Air Force base Fairford in Gloucestershire, south west England. Five men were arrested 350 metres from the base, with the photos showing them shirtless, suggesting that the authorities suspected the use of suicide vests. Furthermore, three vans were seized, and bomb disposal robots were photographed near them, indicating vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs, car bombs).
The next financial crisis (opens the original)
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The energy shock that has followed the American attack on Iran in February 2026 is accelerating. Initial SPR releases have been inadequate. The Americans are considering restricting diesel exports to lower prices domestically, but this may backfire and accelerate inflation further. And the Iranians have not yet played all their cards as they seek to trigger a worldwide financial crisis. The Iranians will likely succeed in triggering a world financial crisis. However, it is worth explaining what
The disasters that haven’t struck yet (opens the original)
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Commercial topics: GCC investments and project finance; aviation, ports and energy risks; the possibility of Turkey and Pakistan entering the war. When thinking of escalation scenarios in the Middle East War, it’s worth setting the wider context first. The Middle East’s pre-WWI MomentRight now, there are three expansionist projects in the region:The Persian Islamic Revolution Project, which aims to ensure complete Iranian control over the Persian Gulf, Iraq and Kuwait, with allied outposts in Le
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