HeyJaredMichael’s Newsletter
A source for information and statistics about American elections
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 7
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- Sep 26, 2026
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- Jul 14, 2026
Latest issues
Early Voting Underway (opens the original)
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I’ve spent the last week working on my early vote tracker dashboard. If you subscribe to my Substack, you likely already visit it. If you haven’t, I’ve added many new features. Where I can produce statistics, I am now generating tables by geography, which may include counties or townships, congressional districts, and state legislative districts. For states with party registration, you can expand a specific geography or district to see the statistics by party registration. I’ve added a lot of dy
North Carolina and New Jersey Are Voting (opens the original)
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North Carolina began sending mail ballots on Friday September 4 and this week five New Jersey counties began sending ballots in advance of their Saturday 19 deadline to mail ballots.I’m tracking New Jersey and North Carolina early voting statistics on my early voting dashboard. What can we learn from these early data? To answer that question, we need to dig further into the data with an understanding of early voting patterns. Read more
2026 General Election Early Voting Underway (opens the original)
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My 2026 General Election Early Vote Tracker is now live with the first state, North Carolina, reporting ten people voting on Friday, Sept. 4.These ten voters are from military and overseas civilian voters. North Carolina election officials transmitted their ballots electronically and these voters returned their ballots electronically. So, don’t make much out of them. At this stage they are more a curiosity than a predictor of the election.North Carolina reported 49,137 mail ballots delivered to
North Carolina Sends Out Mail Ballots Friday, Sept. 4 (opens the original)
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North Carolina begins early voting on September 4 (tomorrow as I write this). So I want to give some quick cautions on what to expect.I will post North Carolina’s statistics on my early voter tracker soon after the North Carolina State Board of Elections posts them.There will be North Carolinians who vote tomorrow. Military and overseas civilian voters … <a href="https://michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/north-carolin
Changes in Florida Voting Mode (opens the original)
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As the early voting period approaches it is a good time for me to post a reminder that election forecasting depends on having a past comparable election to extrapolate from.Case in point with Florida’s early voting is that the state adopted a law known as SB90 (Senate Bill 90) that changes how voters may request and cast mail ballots. There are two important changes that may affect how Floridians vote:Before 2026, a mail ballot request was good through two general elections. If a voter requested
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