HeyJaredMichael Pettis
Finance professor at Peking University and Senior Fellow at Carnegie-Tsinghua Center
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 5
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- Aug 26, 2026
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- Jul 6, 2026
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China Didn't Solve Its Banking Crisis. It Hid Who Paid for It. (opens the original)
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In my July 31 Substack piece (“Domestic continuities between China Shock 1.0 and China Shock 2.0”), I noted that the main cause of the collapse in the household income share of China’s GDP in the 2000s (along with the collapse in its consumption share) was the cleaning up of China’s Big Four banks. Several people have asked me what the connection between the two is, and the purpose of this Substack piece is to briefly explain the connection. For those who are interested, I just published </spa
Technological Leadership and Déjà Vu (opens the original)
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In the current issue of the New Yorker, Evan Osnos writes about a near future dominated by China and Chinese technology. The article is titled “The Future, Made in China: Beijing is competing with the U.S. for tech supremacy. Who wins will have huge political implications.” He begins with a scene that could easily be read as a vision of the future:Kai-Fu Lee, the C.E.O. of the artificial-intelligence company 01.AI, lives in a mirrored high-rise in Beijing, near a procession of landmarks that emp
Domestic continuities between China Shock 1.0 and China Shock 2.0 (opens the original)
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Adam Tooze has just published a good piece on the differences between China Shock 1.0 and China Shock 2.0. Among other things, he argues that “China shock 2.0 isn’t simply a globalization shock triggering a social backlash à la Polanyi. This is post-Polanyian. What China is delivering in the 2020s is an industrial policy shock of global scale.”This is a good way of putting it. The world is indeed experiencing what can be described as “an industrial policy shock of global scale.&#
Currency Revaluation Is Income Rebalancing (opens the original)
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Gita Gopinath, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, and Hélène Rey recently argued in The Economist that an undervalued Chinese yuan is not the fundamental cause of China’s large trade surplus or of global imbalances. And because it isn’t, they conclude, a revaluation of the renminbi would do little to resolve those imbalances. Instead, they argue, the more effective solution would be fiscal consolidation in countries running large fiscal deficit
McKinsey confuses efficiency and competitiveness (opens the original)
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There is, as always, a lot of good material and many interesting ideas in a new report by the McKinsey Global Institute called “Catalyzing competitiveness: Where investment happens and why”. The report calls for more investment by advanced economies, fewer restrictions on greenfield investment projects, reductions in the costs and delays business face, better infrastructure, improvements in energy use and costs, and a number of other measures that
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