HeyJaredMarketModel Substack
Price, Macro, Sentiment, and Random about Stock Market (SP500). Contrarian. Data driven. My bias is computed.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 5
- Latest publication
- Sep 28, 2026
- Audience
- Checking…
- Earliest in this view
- Sep 6, 2026
Latest issues
The Monday Advisor - Narrow at the highs (opens the original)
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SPX 7743, +1.21% WTDSPX finished the week within one percent of its August high. That is the headline, and it is accurate.The internals say something else. Only 46% of the index trades above its 200-day moving average, down from 73% in mid-August, which means more than half the S&P 500 is in a long-term downtrend while the benchmark sits near a record. Short-term breadth is worse, with roughly a quarter of the index above its 50-day.About 5% of the index has made new 52-week lows. On several rec
The Monday Advisor - The count turns (opens the original)
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SPX 7650, -0.08% WTDLast week’s letter described a neutral card count. The shoe had been dealt evenly for two months, and the right response to even odds was a normal-sized bet.That changed this week.MarketModel Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.<in
The Monday Advisor (opens the original)
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SPX 7656, -0.80% WTDMacro spent September at stall speed. Not falling. Not climbing.SPX has had the same trouble, slipping under 7600 before dip buyers showed up.A flat reading is harder to write about than a trend, and it is worth explaining what a probability framework actually does when the number sits in the middle.The closest analogy is card counting.Counting does not predict the next card. It estimates whether the cards left in the shoe are rich in tens and aces, which favors the player, o
The Monday Advisor (opens the original)
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SPX 7718, +0.09% WTDThe SP500 is sitting roughly where it was in the first week of August. Corporate earnings, meanwhile, look extraordinary. Those two facts sit oddly together, and the gap between them is worth a few minutes of your time.Reported profits are running at a cycle peak - earnings growth around 52% with net profit margins near 17%. Numbers like that are rare enough to examine rather than celebrate.The last time they looked this extreme was 2021.Then it was earnings growth of 110% on
The Monday Advisor (opens the original)
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