HeyJaredMacro Watch On Substack
When Dollars ceased to be backed by Gold five decades ago, our economic system began to evolve. In Macro Watch On Substack, Richard Duncan explains how the economy really works today and the new forces driving the financial markets in the 21st Century.
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- Sep 27, 2026
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The Road to 7% Yields and a Stock Market Crash (opens the original)
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The yield on the 10-year US government bond surged above 5.2% last week, reaching its highest level since 2007.That move has major implications for stocks, property, borrowing costs and household wealth. But the most important question is not simply why yields have risen. It is where they go from here.There are several widely discussed explanations for the rise in long-term interest rates: enormous government budget deficits, heavy borrowing to finance the AI boom, and concerns about foreign dem
The Fed Had To Raise Rates To Stop Rates From Rising (opens the original)
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The Federal Reserve raised interest rates this week.At first glance, the reason seems obvious: inflation is too high.But I believe something much more interesting—and potentially much more important—is happening.The Fed had to raise interest rates to stop interest rates from rising.That sounds like a contradiction. It isn’t.Since February 27th, the day before the US attacked Iran, the 2-Year Government Bond Yield has risen by 136 basis points, the 10-Year by 104 basis points, and the 30-
Japan’s Monetary Reversal Could Wipe Out Trillions (opens the original)
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For more than 25 years, the Bank of Japan conducted the most radical monetary experiment the world had ever seen.Now, the BOJ is reversing that experiment—and Japanese government bond yields have reached their highest level in 30 years.This monetary reversal could have devastating consequences extending far beyond Japan. It could trigger a new global financial shock and destroy trillions of dollars of wealth around the world.The new Macro Watch On Substack video explains why this danger is much
Japan Could Shake Global Markets Again (opens the original)
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During the first days of August 2024, the yen appreciated by approximately 13%. That helped trigger an abrupt unwind of the yen carry trade.On August 5, the Nikkei Index plunged 12.4%, its worst one-day fall since 1987. When Wall Street opened, the Nasdaq fell 6.3%, Nvidia opened 14% lower and the VIX approached 66.Markets recovered quickly. Nevertheless, the episode demonstrated how a sudden rise in the yen could destabilize financial markets around the world.Today, similar conditions are devel
Japanese Monetary Policy: The BOJ Goes Ballistic — Part Two (opens the original)
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Yesterday, I published Part One of this series, examining the Bank of Japan’s attempts to defeat deflation between 1999 and 2012.Part Two begins in 2013, when Haruhiko Kuroda became Governor and the BOJ launched Quantitative and Qualitative Easing. It subsequently expanded that program, introduced negative interest rates and adopted Yield Curve Control.During the five years covered by this video, Japan’s monetary base increased three and a half times. The BOJ acquired approximately 40% of all Ja
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