HeyJaredMacro Sniper Report
This Substack serves as my journal to express, track and order my thoughts about global stock, commodity and currency markets.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 9
- Latest publication
- Sep 27, 2026
- Audience
- Checking…
- Earliest in this view
- Jul 4, 2026
Latest issues
Resilience is a signal (opens the original)
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Macro PictureYields on US Treasuries have reached the highest levels since 2009 and yet equities have shown immense resilience and moved up, despite the panic in bonds. Maybe Equity traders just dont get it, maybe its a sign to pay attention. Underneath the surface of the indices we have seen quite a big correction with breadth levels below the market bottoms from the Iran war and the Tariff Tantrum last year. I think there is a reason to be optimistic about equities in the near term as energy r
Post FOMC: What to actually look for (opens the original)
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Macro overhangThe FED hiked as expected and Warsh was just as hawkish, if not more hawkish as expected. In direct reaction we got a USD Rally, a precious metal and equity sell off and a Bond sell off. Today, we get a big gap up in all of these assets and a pull back in the USD. Its important to not get chopped up by the markets here and zoom out to get a good perspective on everything. QQQ: Home on the range… I pointed out the possible range on June 7th, and here we are. We had a true scare in l
Yields explode, Semis resist. (opens the original)
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Market Environment Risk Off… we are very obviously in a dangerous situation. Currently I am in 80% Cash. But not panicked. Macro OutlookThree weeks ago I pointed out rising inflation expectations and that led to rising yields and lower equity markets. But for now I am just impressed by how the Semiconductors held up, despite the Yield Breakout. Are Bond traders just smarter and the pain will arrive there too? Maybe, but for now, the relative strength is impressive and energy is overbought. A pul
The Reckoning (opens the original)
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Macro OutlookNothing changed since last weeks article, although the Treasury indicated to give support to the Long End by borrowing from the short end, the size of these buybacks is laughable for now, even after doubling it. So in essence we are still in the same place. Economic Growth, Rising Yields and Monetary support to prevent Treasury Market Volatility and the FED making sure there is ample liquidity for the treasury to sell T-Bills. This leads to a lower USD and is an explosive cocktail f
The Fall in Fall (opens the original)
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I see substantial risks in this market, that could make a true comeback of the Semi and Hyperscalers very difficult. Oil is rising, Rates are rising, USD is falling. Future Growth and a FED that refuses to stop supporting the markets enhance these effects, possibly forcing Equity Rotation from projected future cash flow to actual cash flow. In short: XLP, XLV, XLE and XME bid with Momentum and Growth getting a haircut over the coming months. Oh and by the way, all of retail is long Semis and AI
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