HeyJaredLong Walls
Geopolitics, Grand Strategy, Economic Statecraft, Technology, Policy, and the Defense of the West
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 11
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- Sep 17, 2026
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- Jul 14, 2026
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Mines, War Risk and the Strait of Hormuz: Who Insures Shipping in a War Zone? (opens the original)
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Earlier this week, I promised more on the topic of Iran’s mine-laying capability in the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping has slowed dramatically since the Iran war began on February 28. The International Maritime Organization reports at least 80 attacks on international shipping in the Strait since that date.It makes you wonder: Who is willing to insure a ship moving through a war zone, and at what cost?I spoke with Dominick Donald, a political and geopolitical risk expert and advisor to the Joi
Dogs that Aren’t Barking (opens the original)
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I pay a lot of attention to what I call ‘dogs that aren’t barking.’ By this, I mean circumstances where the widely expected outcome just quietly didn’t happen. One great example, except that many have actually commented on it, is oil prices - people really thought a war that shut Hormuz would spike oil prices above 200 dollars. But it didn’t happen, or at least not yet.Another, better, example - When the Israelis managed to utterly cripple Hezbollah, this was a huge surprise to many in the secur
What It Actually Takes to Get a Venture Capitalist to Say Yes (opens the original)
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<img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="819" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oXfk!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe977b0fd-5c72-4521-ad7c-b8429a5e3a35_1920x1080.pn
On Borders (opens the original)
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Spain is no longer meaningfully sovereign in their North African exclaves of Ceuta and Melilla. They’ve demonstrated that they are flatly unwilling to enforce a monopoly on violence to protect these exclaves against mass invasion.Events over the past few days have demonstrated that the real sovereign in these territories is the King of Morocco. The Guardia Civil says its border cameras identified <a href="https://www.elespanol.com/espana/20260802/guardia-civil-detecta-agentes-inteligencia-ma
Don’t Threaten Us With a Good Time (opens the original)
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By Michael Hochberg and Mike St-PierreOn July 12, with the June ceasefire in ruins and American aircraft striking Iran nightly, the IRGC Navy declared — in a statement carried by Iranian state media — that the Strait of Hormuz “has been closed until further notice and will remain closed until the United States ends its intervention in the region.” And, for the avoidance of doubt: “No vessel will be permitted to transit the strait.”This is supposed to be the nightmare scenario. The strait carried
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