HeyJaredLance Roberts
Chief Strategist for RIA Advisors, Host of the Real Investment Show, Editor for Real Investment Advice, and Portfolio Strategist for SimpleVisor.com. Over 35 years of experience through "Been There, Done That" from 1987, 1999, 2008, and 2020.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 41
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- Oct 1, 2026
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- Sep 9, 2026
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10-1-26 Credit Spreads Are Widening — An Early Warning For Stocks? (opens the original)
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Corporate credit spreads are finally starting to widen after spending an unusually long period near historically tight levels.That doesn’t mean a crisis is imminent. But it is something investors should be watching closely.Credit spreads measure the additional yield investors demand to own corporate debt instead of Treasuries. When spreads widen sharply, it can signal that investors are becoming increasingly concerned about credit risk, economic conditions and the ability of companies to refinan
10-1-26 Bond Yields May Be Setting Up a Trade (opens the original)
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Treasury yields have spiked, with the 10-Year Treasury around 5.29%, but the technical picture suggests rates may be getting stretched. Historically, extreme deviations from longer-term trends have often been followed by a retracement in yields, potentially creating a short-term trading opportunity in longer-duration bonds.Lance Roberts examines the 20-year history of Treasury yields, the current technical setup, and why heavy short positioning in bonds could amplify a reversal if rates begin to
Daily Market Trading Update: October 1, 2026 (opens the original)
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Monday’s Tweet of the Day in the Daily Commentary highlighted rising swap spreads and noted that Treasury issuance is not the problem many pundits make it out to be. Swap spreads are a great gauge for the health and liquidity of the US Treasury market, so it’s worth appreciating the Tweet below.A swap spread is the fixed rate on an interest rate swap minus the Treasury yield of the same maturity. As the graph shows, swap spreads have been negative for years, currently at around -39 basis points.
9-30-26 The Corporate Refinancing Lag Explains Equity Resilience (opens the original)
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Interest rates keep rising, bonds are falling, and the Fed continues to tighten — so why is the stock market still holding up near all-time highs? $SPX $SPY $QQQA big part of the answer is the corporate refinancing lag.Bond prices have an inverse relationship with interest rates, so as yields rise, bond prices and bond fund NAVs decline. The longer the duration, the greater the sensitivity. But the bigger economic question isn’t whether higher yields create a bond-market crisis. It’s when higher
9-30-26 Market Breadth Sends a Warning (opens the original)
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Markets remain stuck in consolidation, but beneath the major indexes, the picture looks considerably weaker. Only about 40% of stocks are trading above their 50-day moving averages, while small-caps, mid-caps, utilities, real estate, and financials have faced significant pressure.At the same time, the growing number of stocks hitting 52-week lows and falling below key moving averages may be pushing market breadth toward more extreme levels. Historically, those conditions can become contrarian si
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