HeyJaredKoalatyStats
I use Data Science and Statistics to predict the future in the NFL. If you like unique, evidence backed NFL analysis, you will like this publication.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 9
- Latest publication
- Sep 25, 2026
- Audience
- Checking…
- Earliest in this view
- Aug 6, 2026
Latest issues
Week 3 Advanced Stats, Predictions, and Hidden Value (opens the original)
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Hey Everyone,We had an EPIC +2000 hit on TNF in the Substack chat! 2 hits through 3 weeks on low probability bets isn’t half bad 👀<img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="344" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zN_2!,w_1456,c_limit,f_au
Week 3 ‘Coach, I Was Open’ & ‘Route-Based Heroes’ (opens the original)
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Hey Everyone,I hope you are doing well.The basic premise for the uninitiated is:Players can have a high probability of being targeted without actually earning a target.Coaches see this in film review or players complain about itCoaches / QBs try to get the ball to player who was open in Week N+1This obviously does not hold true for EVERY player EVERY week, but the results aren’t half badThe best way to truly think about these players is: high volume passing attack + CIWO could mean a LOT of targ
Week 2 Advanced Stats, Predictions, and Hidden Value (opens the original)
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Hey Everyone,We had a nice published hit in week 1 and most of the stories were rock solid. I would consider that a great success!The Hit: Jordan Love 250+ & Watson 80+ & Watson TD → +820 on PolymarketLIKE THIS POST!!!!Good news: I am getting the Substack out early this week! I will be busy/flying later Today/ + Friday and figured y’all would prefer it earlyBad news: injury news and starters aren’t settled in a few places. </li
‘Coach, I Was Open’ - Week 2 (opens the original)
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Hey Everyone,I hope you are doing well. Football is back, ‘Coach, I Was Open’ is back! The basic premise for the uninitiated is:Players can have a high probability of being targeted without actually earning a target.Coaches see this in film review or players complain about itCoaches / QBs try to get the ball to player who was open in Week N+1This obviously does not hold true for EVERY player EVERY week, but the results aren’t half bad The best way to truly think about these players is: high volu
Week 1 Advanced Stats, Predictions, and Hidden Value (opens the original)
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Hey Everyone,I hope you have all had a good off-season. If you are new here, welcome! I do advanced statistical breakdowns of every game each week. Please consider subscribingSubscribe nowWeek 1 is tricky for someone like me; we have no “reliable data” for 2026. Most of my models simply aren’t online. The analysis you will see below is using what I call a “campsite model”Basically, I construct each team’s roster in 2026 using data for each PLAYER (and pl
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