HeyJaredJustified Posteriors
Explorations into the economics of AI and innovation. Seth Benzell and Andrey Fradkin discuss academic papers and essays at the intersection of economics and technology. empiricrafting.substack.com
- Indexed episodes, last 90 days
- 4
- Latest publication
- Aug 31, 2026
- Audience
- Checking…
- Earliest in this view
- Jul 13, 2026
Latest episodes
Martin Beraja on AI-tocracy, the Benefits of Unclear Property Rights, and the Massive Potential of AI to Optimize Firms (opens the original)
Read excerpt
This week, we’re joined by Martin Beraja of UC Berkeley Haas, one of the most prolific macroeconomists working on AI. We start with his newest paper “Growth at the Resource Frontier” — with Noam Yuchtman — which argues that NYT v. OpenAI is just the latest instance of a very old pattern — innovators appropriate resources nobody had bothered to assign property rights to (oil, the electromagnetic spectrum, ad data), and the courts legitimate it afterward. Could it be that unclear property rights a
Does GDP Growth Mislead Us About Quality of Life? (opens the original)
Read excerpt
In this episode, we discuss “When GDP Misleads: Inferring Living Standards from the Value of a Statistical Life” , written by Stanford/Anthropic economist Chad Jones and Stanford/Epoch economist Philip Trammell. The word “AI” never appears in it, yet every argument about whether AI will show up in the statistics runs through the question of whether the statistics were ever measuring the right thing. We start with priors. Has real GDP per capita over- or underestimated welfare growth? Andrey’s ca
Is AI Replacing Programmers or Boosting Them? (opens the original)
Read excerpt
Justified Posteriors reads “Writing Code vs. Shipping Code” by Mert Demirer, Leon Musolff, and Liyuan Yang In this week’s episode of Justified Posteriors, we update our beliefs with evidence from an ambitious new paper estimating the impact of AI on software production productivity. Demirer (friend of the show), Musolff, and Yang combine public GitHub records for over 100,000 developers with confidential Microsoft data to trace the effect of distinct generations of AI coding tools — autocomplete
No AI Jobs Apocalypse (Yet) - and a Debt Problem (Now) | Martha Gimbel (Yale Budget Lab) (opens the original)
Read excerpt
This week we’re joined by Martha Gimbel , executive director and co-founder of The Budget Lab at Yale . Martha has worked just about everywhere economic policy gets made — the Joint Economic Committee, the Obama and Biden Councils of Economic Advisers, and Indeed’s Hiring Lab — and she’s now one of the clearest voices on what the data does (and doesn’t yet) say about AI and the labor market. We start in Washington: what politicians are actually asking about AI, the case for “no regrets” economic
Publishing over time
Last 90 days. Choose a month to open its work.
Recurring subjects
Named in the text we hold. One piece can cover several.
Audience
No verified audience measurement yet.
About this data
Counts cover the work we have indexed. Tone needs enough text and a confident classification. Excerpts and episode notes are not full articles or transcripts.
Identity or attribution wrong? Suggest a correction.