HeyJaredIt's all in the reflexes
I divide my time assessing macro economics, fundamental analysis, and technical analysis of short and long term opportunities. Anything shared here is for educational purposes and not investment or financial advice.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
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- Sep 17, 2026
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- Jul 20, 2026
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Equity and Commodity Performance after a Rate Hike (opens the original)
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Reaction to Federal Reserve Rate IncreasesThe Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate by 25bps today. The market drifted higher into the FOMC session and then turned lower after. It’s common to see trend pivot around FOMC sessions.Two years ago I shared this update talking about what we might expect after an initial rate cut. Rate hikes and cuts have more influence when they represent a change from easing regime to a tightening regime, while rate decisions in between can have less consequence.
Video Update 3: Cycle, Seasonality, and Individual Charts (opens the original)
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This is the 3rd and final video for the weekend. We’ve updated on:My outlook for economic factors.Market timing signals for near term consideration.Seasonality, cycle, and charts of interest.<source type="image/
Video Update 2: Market Timing (Extreme Vulnerability and Volatility Tsunami) (opens the original)
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I am sharing 3 video updates:My outlook for economic factors.Market timing signals for near term consideration.Seasonality, cycle, and charts of interest.
Video Update 1: Economic Factors (opens the original)
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I am sharing 3 video updates:My outlook for economic factors.Market timing signals for near term consideration.Seasonality, cycle, and charts of interest.
Chop City and the July 27 Cluster (opens the original)
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IntroductionSince May, the S&P has hovered around 7500 — the sticky psychological level we flagged when we first touched it. Last week the picture got heavier: the reclaim of 7500 failed, the 7/7 low was taken out, and we’re entering the weakest three-month stretch of the presidential cycle. Now the calendar gets crowded. Wednesday brings VIX expiration, my liquidity proxy and cycle tools point at 7/21–7/27, and the historical July high lands on 7/24. This issue maps that cluster, checks in on t
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