HeyJaredIronsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time'
Macroeconomic and public policy strategy ironsidesmacro.substack.com
- Indexed pieces, last 90 days
- 16
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- Sep 30, 2026
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- Aug 22, 2026
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September Payroll Preview (opens the original)
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Note: Our travel schedule is forcing us to release our weekly on Monday morning this week, we apologize for the delay. We will release some first thoughts using the Substack chat function on Friday morning.Executive SummaryWe see a labor market that is materially more fragile than the headline unemployment rate suggests. Although U3 and establishment employment growth have improved modestly since the Fed rate cuts in late ‘25, demand for labor has not: hiring, quits, job openings, small-business
Doubling Down (opens the original)
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Here is our latest client presentation, please let us know if you have any problems downloading the PDF. These charts should look familiar, they are drawn from our weekly notes. We got some help from CoPilot making the text more concise. If this is helpful, we will try to send this regularly. Fed balance sheet and policy path•Financial conditions and ba… Read more
Monday Morning Brief (opens the original)
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Read the note, Special K<img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="507" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_OZN!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:goo
Special K (opens the original)
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This week’s note is somewhat briefer with fewer charts than our typical weekly. Although it is shorter than usual, we did have a busy week of client discussions, and we integrate the meetings into the text. As we mentioned last week, we have begun a month of travel, and the internet connection at our Airbnb in New Hampshire was sketchy. We will release a payroll preview note prior to a trip to Iowa for golf and college football next weekend. We will release a weekly at our regularly scheduled ti
Monday Morning Brief (opens the original)
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CNBC Asia Squawk Box, Sunday, September 20Read the note You Finally Really Did It<a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FiDH!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F299f5626-6b35-4a71-8cfb-8b76b7853bfe_906x503.png" target="_bla
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