HeyJaredHoppen to Conclusions
A newsletter bringing together sports commentary and analytics, powered by data visualization and data-driven analysis
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 21
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- Sep 30, 2026
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- Aug 10, 2026
Latest issues
NFL Composite Power Ratings: Week 4 (opens the original)
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Each week I compile power ratings from several respected sources across the NFL handicapping community. Power ratings are designed to identify how many points a team would be favored by against an average team on a neutral field.By calculating the difference in ratings between the two teams (and adjusting for home-field advantage), you can get a ratings-implied spread to compare to the actual spread. In the second section, I’ve done that while assuming a value of 1.5 points for home-field advant
Hoppen to Conclusions Week 4: NFL Trends & Performance (opens the original)
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<img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="416" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Hu7I!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbae3f576-f05e-45ab-893a-e2b938ce4dfc_1512x432.jpe
Week 3 game recaps (opens the original)
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It’s tough to capture game flow and performance in a box score, much less a single chart. But, what I provide below is a way to split out how each team may have won (or lost) their game, split out by some key components of the game.The initial win probability waterfall charts (on the left) are intended to show where each team gained and lost win probability across the game. Obviously, these are often biased by end-of-game win probability swings when the games are close.I’ve also added a chart th
NFL Week 3 Matchup Previews (opens the original)
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Below are some high-level stats for each team’s offense compared to their opponent’s defense. Green-highlighted cells indicate a team is top-8 in that category while purple-highlighted cells indicate a team is bottom-8 - hopefully a helpful way to quickly identify positive or negative matchups for teams.I’ve included some brief commentary for some of the games I find interesting, but would love to hear what stands out to you in these games in the comments below. With that, let’s get to the previ
Hoppen to Conclusions Week 3: NFL Trends & Performance (opens the original)
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<img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="416" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Hu7I!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbae3f576-f05e-45ab-893a-e2b938ce4dfc_1512x432.jpe
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