HeyJaredHidden Asymmetries
I cover global macro issues and break down market dynamics with a long term view
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- Sep 4, 2026
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- Jul 11, 2026
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The Indian Summer of Manufacturing (opens the original)
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A couple of weeks ago, I closed my piece on the evolving economic statecraft with a constructive note on Indian manufacturing. The larger idea therein was that even though India has had to deal with numerous head winds of changing world order, the reason Indian economic growth (7.8% this last quarter) had stayed robust was because India was uniquely positioned to take advantage of this emerging world order. In these pages, I have often argued that the rebalancing of the global economy is about m
The Warsh-Druckenmiller Wager (opens the original)
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This past week Stan Druckenmiller wrote an oped titled “Let the Bond Market Speak”. It’s worth the read if you have not read it yet and it did cause a bit of frenzy. Firstly, because this was the man under whom the current Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had trained and pretty much engineered the Black Wednesday crisis. Stan did not mince words while calling the latest move of the Treasury in buying back 30Y bonds “price ma
When a Deal Dies (opens the original)
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Last week, minutes before a midnight deadline, US and Canada let a trade deal die. A deal which had been declared essentially finished, just three days back, by Donald Trump. It’d be comical had it not been so tragic. It’d be surprising had it not been so predictable. If I am not wrong, Howard Lutnick had once bragged about this same negotiation style wherein he comes in when everything has been agreed and places fresh demands. I suspect the trade deal with India was scuppered for precisely the
The See-Saw of Economic Statecraft (opens the original)
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I spend most of my time on markets watching RSI and stochastics, and I think a lot of us do. We forget the real economy underneath the price action. When we do remember macro, we usually reach for inflation, or unemployment, or at best sovereign debt, and all of that is a look in the rear-view mirror. It tells you what already happened. What I find more interesting, and considerably harder to see while it's happening, is how economies evolve in real time, and over the last twelve to fifteen mont
Debt Hungry America Inc. (opens the original)
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I have written about debt quite a bit on this Substack. But my focus has largely been on sovereign debt largely because we are in a global sovereign debt crisis while the corporate and household balance sheets have looked well balanced. But that might be changing, at least from an American corporate outlook. As the big tech earnings have come out in the past month, a common emerging trend has been of negative free cash flows and increased appetite for borrowing. From a macro perspective, I am in
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