HeyJaredGood Judgment News and Insights
Actionable, Early Insight with the Science of Superforecasting
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 13
- Latest publication
- Sep 29, 2026
- Audience
- Checking…
- Earliest in this view
- Jul 6, 2026
Latest issues
Superforecasting the Week Ahead: 29 September 2026 (opens the original)
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Iran. With President Trump’s threat of “annihilation” in his UN speech and Iran’s warning that it could expand the war, the conflict remains as tense as it has been in recent months. Superforecasters generally expect the US-Iran conflict to continue at least through year-end, but they see both sides trying to limit escalation. Iran has focused its attacks on US forces, Gulf states, and shipping while largely avoiding Israel. This pattern has led several Superforecasters to conclude that Tehran s
Superforecasting the Week Ahead: 22 September 2026 (opens the original)
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US Midterms. In his latest Substack post, Matthew Yglesias looked at how prediction markets did in this year’s primaries. He found them well calibrated, but mostly following the polls and weakest in races where no one was polling. He also discussed calibration and what Superforecasters bring: a domain-agnostic skill and a “discipline they deliberately hone over time.” On the midterms, Superforecasters see things differently from Polymarket. They have higher odds that Democrats win t
Superforecasting the Week Ahead: 14 September 2026 (opens the original)
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Russia-Ukraine. Superforecasters remain deeply skeptical, as they have since the conflict began, that either a ceasefire or a formal peace agreement is approaching. Read more
Superforecasting the Week Ahead: 8 September 2026 (opens the original)
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Europe Election Roundup. After the Alternative for Germany (the AfD) performed well in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, the election outlook generally shows a rightward tilt across the major countries over the next year or two. Read more
Superforecasting the Week Ahead: 1 September 2026 (opens the original)
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Fed. Once again, Superforecasters are diverging from the markets in their forecast for the Fed’s next meeting. Good Judgment’s Superforecasters expect the Fed to stay on pause again in September, with a probability of 80%. Read more
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