HeyJaredGnS Economics Newsletter
We are here to shield you from Black Swans, i.e., improbable, high-impact events, and to forecast the global economy. We have been operating actively since 2018, after which not a single major detrimental event has not come as a surprise to our customers.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
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- Aug 17, 2026
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- Earliest in this view
- Aug 4, 2026
Latest issues
Pause (opens the original)
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Dear all,Like I pre-warned you in the Weekly Forecasts 28/2026, I will now pause the service offering of GnS Economics in its totality for three months. This is for the simple reason that we currently lack the manpower to run our services with sufficiently high quality.When we started in 2012, as a side-project, there were four people (associates) behind our analyses. We agreed from the get-go that I would be the public face of GnS Economics, but the work behind my writing was always a group eff
The Financial A-bomb known as "Private Credit" (opens the original)
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A week ago, while analyzing the closeness of the U.S. recession, I noted that during the summer I discovered something even more worrying about the private credit sector of the U.S. I am going to close this week by reporting my findings. It turns out that the financial structure surrounding credit funds is even more opaque and alarming than what I had previously noted in “A Financial Monster in Creat
Weekly Forecasts 28/2026 (opens the original)
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Contents:There has been a development in the U.S. bank lending.We look for the (statistical) breakpoints in the U.S. bank lending series.Forecasts indicate a slowing down of U.S. business lending, indicating an approaching downturn.This week, we will begin a more in-depth analysis of U.S. bank lending data. We introduce you to the concept of breakpoint analysis and how it can affect the long-run dependency and cointegration relationship(s) between variables. Therefore, the will be a rather techn
Stagflation is on the horizon (opens the original)
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Today, I am just quickly going to comment on the July inflation figures. Forecasts based on the supply chain shock scenario we envisaged at the end of July seem to have performed the best.<img
The Grand Failure in the Middle East (opens the original)
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Today, I asked Grok to draw a figure on the development of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). It should worry us all.<img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="721" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WgQ-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progr
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