HeyJaredGlobal Guerrillas
Frameworks for decision-makers at the intersection of war, politics, and technology
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 6
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- Sep 30, 2026
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- Jul 15, 2026
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Unordered (opens the original)
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In the past, I’ve used David Ronfeldt’s TIMN (tribes, institutions, markets, and networks) as a framework to make sense of our evolving world. It framed networks as a new organizational type competing with tribes, markets, and institutions (Weber’s bureaucracy). However, as I pushed through my cognitive biases, it became clear that networks aren’t an organizational type; they’re a state of coupling. It’s a field of interconnectivit
Three Systems (opens the original)
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The struggle between Communism, Fascism, and Democratic Capitalism that defined the twentieth century was, at root, a war between competing systems. Systems that claimed to solve the problem of industrialized modernity.The twenty-first century will see a similar struggle among three new contenders that claim to solve the problem of networked AI. Here’s an early peek.<a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!871H!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:
The End of Mass (opens the original)
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Mass, the organizing principle of the twentieth century’s societal operating system, is dead or dying. Here’s what this means, and how to think about what comes next. Mass is the forced convergence of many people, products, institutions, and behaviors into a common middle through standardized systems of production, distribution, and coordination.A little over a decade ago, mass media had control over;The narratives surrounding every event.The labels of fact and fiction.The limits of public disco
The Great Powers Respond (opens the original)
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Three of the world’s great powers have the same problem: they don’t know how to defeat a drone hedgehog that threatens their interests. What is a drone hedgehog?It’s a country with a large drone-fueled arsenal (from aerial to ballistic to land to sea)capable of fighting a major power to a standstill ormaking attacks so costly, they deter a major power from acting.The pairing for each power is;Russia vs. UkraineUnited States vs. IranChina vs. TaiwanPhases of DevelopmentAll three of the gr
The West's Achilles Heel (opens the original)
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There was an interesting example of weaponized migration this week.60,000 (NYTimes) ‘migrants’ flooded into Ceuta, Spain’s isolated territory in North Africa, over the course of 24 hours.Given the logistical scale of the event, it was likely planned and supported by the Moroccan government to disrupt and coerce Spain, which Morocco wants out of North Africa.This was the third time Morocco has used this tactic. In 2005, a thousand ‘migrants’ broke through. In 2021, 12,000 flooded in.This tactic w
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