HeyJaredFourth Down Analytics
Deep-dive sports analysis where data meets storytelling. Breaking down NFL coaching decisions, player performance, and team strategies through comprehensive play-by-play analytics. No hot takes, just cold hard numbers and the stories they tell.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 5
- Latest publication
- Sep 3, 2026
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- Earliest in this view
- Jul 4, 2026
Latest issues
Electrical Substation Goes Undefeated (opens the original)
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<img alt="Should electrical substation next to Super Bowl 60 worry Seahawks, Patriots? - The Athletic" class="sizing-normal" height="971" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!09aR!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post
The Ledger That Isn't a Stat Sheet (opens the original)
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Back in early June, I created a Google Sheet to project receiver extensions based solely on box score production. This is not for any school project or to show off to my friends, but just as an opportunity to predict outcomes from the numbers. Taking multiple stats like receiving yards, receptions, and touchdowns into account, I made, as my math teacher would say, an “educated guess” about a variety of NFL players seeking extensions this offseason.<a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" hre
Grass for 78 Days (opens the original)
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Well, football is finally back! At least to some extent, as training camp started for all 32 NFL teams this week. Over the last few years, I spent hours on Twitter and other platforms trying to find highlights that fans sneakily took at Giants training sessions. This year, I wanted to be one of these fans who watch football before it even really starts. Unfortunately, the camp was moved from East Rutherford, New Jersey, down to West Virginia, leaving me scrolling on social media yet again.Now, t
The New Playbook: Where Markets Meet the Football Field (opens the original)
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The first time I ran a mock game through the momentum-identifying tool I’ve been building this summer at Machina Sports, I knew what was going to happen. I’d written fake play-by-plays myself: an incomplete pass, a 45-yard touchdown, an extra point. No mystery was present, just me trying to figure out if the tool I built actually works.Yet, I still leaned toward the screen, waiting for the price to alter. From 42 cents to 43 to 63 across three lines of text I’d written an hour earlier. That’s wh
The Schedule Shift: The Most Underpriced Variable in Fantasy Drafts (opens the original)
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When I talk with my league mates about what they look for in a draft pick, I hear the same things. Talent. Opportunity. Target share. Usage. Health history. Even if a player plays for their favorite team.Almost nobody mentions schedule difficulty.Last year I finished third. I narrowly chose Matthew Golden over Offensive Rookie of the Year Tetairoa McMillan. I watched Omarion Hampton go down in Week 5 and felt the season slip. I felt lucky to get third place, but this feat gets you nothing except
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