HeyJaredForecasting Research Institute
Using the science of forecasting to improve decision-making on high-stake issues
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 9
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- Sep 28, 2026
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- Jul 14, 2026
Latest issues
Improving the Accuracy and Relevance of AI Forecasts We Publish (opens the original)
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This is the second post in a short series on the accuracy of AI progress forecasts we’ve gathered at the Forecasting Research Institute (FRI). In the previous post, we explored the accuracy of the AI progress forecasts we’ve collected so far.This post was authored by Josh Rosenberg, Matt Reynolds, Nadja Flechner, and Zack Devlin-Foltz.1In the <a href="https://forecastingresearch.org/resear
How Accurate Have AI Progress Forecasts Been So Far? (opens the original)
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This is the first post in a short series on the accuracy of AI progress forecasts we’ve gathered at the Forecasting Research Institute (FRI). In the next post, we’ll explore how to improve the accuracy and relevance of AI forecasts in our studies going forward.This post was authored by Josh Rosenberg, Matt Reynolds, Nadja Flechner, and Zack Devlin-Foltz.1SummarySince mid-2022, FRI has collected forecasts on AI progr
Automating Catastrophic Risk Forecasts: Introducing AIRO (opens the original)
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The Automated AI Risk Outlook (AIRO) is a new dashboard where an ensemble of frontier LLMs forecasts the probability of catastrophic risk events. To learn more, view the AIRO dashboard or read our launch white paper.Forecasts about the likelihood of catastrophic risks from AI vary wildly. Dario Amodei has estimated a 25% chance of human extinction within the <a href="https://www.axios.com/20
Will the AI boom continue? Forecasting the trajectory of the AI industry (opens the original)
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AI companies have been on an absolute tear recently. Anthropic’s revenue run rate reportedly topped $65 billion by the end of July, up from $47 billion in May. OpenAI is not far behind, with a reported annualized revenue run rate of $40 billion. These growth curves are extremely steep and—if they continue—OpenAI and Anthropic are set
Forecasting the Impacts of Anthropic's ASL-3 Safeguards on Biosecurity Risks (opens the original)
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This research was funded by Anthropic PBC. Anthropic provided input and advice in the development of the report, but all findings and claims represent the views of the authors. For further information, please see the full report.SummaryWe ran a forecasting study to better understand expert views on the effectiveness of Anthropic’s AI Safety Level 3 (ASL-3) Deployment Standards at reducing biosecurity risk based on AI models from early 2026. We surveyed 22 biosecurity, nat
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