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- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 5
- Latest publication
- Jul 20, 2026
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- Earliest in this view
- Jul 6, 2026
Latest issues
Sunday Signals with FTI (opens the original)
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The Week AheadThe MOU is suspended. 17 US service members are now confirmed dead since the war restarted. Iran’s advisor warned that continued US strikes within “2-3 days” would trigger what he called “full-scale invasion and annihilation” rhetoric aimed back at the US. That’s undoubtably the most extreme rhetorical threshold either side has crossed this year.Two things are true at once:This is no longer a shipping lane conflict. Strikes have moved to power lines, bridges, water systems, and now
Iran and America Are Both Charging Tolls Now (opens the original)
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This is what the conflict has become:Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. will be known as “THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT” and that it will charge a 20% fee (a loophole to a tariff of course) on all cargo shipped through the waterway to cover the cost of “providing security”. Iran’s Foreign Minister responded with: “Iran has always been the GUARDIAN of the Strait and will remain so FOREVER. 20% is of course too much. We will be fair.”The two sides are now publicly negotiating a toll ra
Sunday Signals with FTI (opens the original)
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The Week AheadThe ceasefire is officially over. Trump declared it dead Wednesday after Iran struck three commercial vessels in the Strait. The US answered with strikes on six Iranian cities.Markets shrugged all of it off. The VIX closed the week at 15. Oil closed around $70.Two things are true at once:The war is reignited with new sanctions, new strikes, and a widened threat scope.Equities don’t care. The S&P closed the week up over 1%, at all-time highs, the same week.Three forces define the we
The Memo Is Dead. The War Is Not Over. (opens the original)
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FTI | July 9, 2026Three weeks ago Trump signed a memo of understanding at Versailles. He called it a “major diplomatic win.” He said the war was ending. The market priced in relief, oil fell, gas dropped, and our Scenario C has now climbed to 40% probability.On Tuesday, Iran attacked three commercial ships in the SoH. The U.S. responded with strikes on more than 80 targets across Iran. Iran responded by launching missiles and drones at U.S. military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Then the U.S. str
Sunday Signals with FTI (opens the original)
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The Week AheadQ2 closed as the best quarter for equities since 2020. Then AI stocks wobbled the same week.Two things are true at once:Oil below $70 removes the inflation driver that forced Warsh’s hawkish debut in June.Broadening market leadership away from AI megacaps is now a visible trend.Three things will define the next week:FOMC June minutes (Wednesday): the first real look behind Warsh’s hawkish June statementWhether the AI relief rally that started Monday holds or fades againSpaceX’s FAA
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