HeyJaredFlow's Substack
Weekly insights to help investors cut through the headlines and stay ahead of the next move.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 3
- Latest publication
- Aug 11, 2026
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- Jul 28, 2026
Latest issues
A record high, built on 23,000 lost jobs (opens the original)
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On Friday the US economy printed minus 23,000 jobs. Not slower hiring — an actual loss. The S&P closed at an all-time high the same afternoon.Before you call that insane, look at what the market was actually pricing. A week earlier it gave a September rate hike about an 81% chance. After the print, roughly 40%. Nobody bought stocks because the labour market is healthy. They bought stocks because a broken labour market makes it harder for Warsh to hike. That’s it. That’s the trade.And the headlin
I was wrong about AI spending. Here's the better version. (opens the original)
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Last week I told you the market hates AI spending. Then Amazon raised its capex to $220 billion — more than Google, more than Meta, the biggest number in the group — and the stock went up 15%.So that was a humbling forty-eight hours for my thesis. The good news is the correction is a better story than the thing it replaced.Because Meta did the opposite and got taken apart. Revenue fine, up 28%. EPS missed by 13%. Free cash flow collapsed 91%, from $8.5 billion to $784 million, and they raised th
Turns out AI costs money (opens the original)
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This was the week the market finally noticed that pouring $200 billion into data centers might, eventually, need to produce a dollar back.Google beat on revenue, raised its capex guidance toward $200 billion, and posted its first negative free cash flow since 2004 — and the stock dropped 7%, because “we’re spending more than ever and the payoff is definitely coming, trust us” is a tougher sell in year three. Meanwhile ServiceNow beat, raised guidance, and its CFO more or less said everyone else
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