HeyJaredFigure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
Determining how “sharps” (professional wagerers) are betting major sports events. Strongly influenced by two decades ghostwriting for Las Vegas oddsmakers, and four decades of analytics-style stat handicapping.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 37
- Latest publication
- Oct 1, 2026
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- Earliest in this view
- Sep 11, 2026
Latest issues
Stat Catch-Up in MLB and WNBA Playoffs (opens the original)
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At some point, I’m going to go into more depth about how/why the #1 seed in the WNBA brackets was knocked out in two straight games. Not hearing much about it from the mainstream media. Everyone’s still focused on the celebrity stars whose teams are still alive. Minnesota was best in our SuperLeague…but fell apart at the worst possible time.Right now, t… Read more
College Football: How Sharps are Betting Friday’s TV Toss-ups (10/2) (opens the original)
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Two interesting handicapping/betting challenges on the Friday night college football card this week. Let’s see how sharps (professional wagerers) have been betting Pittsburgh/West Virginia and Penn State/Northwestern.Pittsburgh (+2.5) at Virginia Tech (7 p.m. ET on ESPN)Opening line: Virginia Tech -3.5Ceiling: Virginia Tech -3.5Floor: Virginia Tech -2.5, after falling through the key number to settle belowCurrent Line: Virginia Tech -2.5Sharps Like: Pittsburgh +3.5 for very strong
Updated NFL “Market” Power Ratings (10/1) (opens the original)
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It would help analysts if backup quarterbacks were always worse than starters, and if #3 QBs were helpless jokes that always lost blowouts. Case Keenum was the latest #3 guy to blow that thought process out of the water. It’s very tricky for the most informed elements of sports betting markets to make proper adjustments for injuries. This weekly effort to take a snapshot (at publication time) of likely market Power Ratings will perpetually deal with that reality.If this is your first time readin
NFL Workshop: Two “Imagined” Entries Still Alive (10/1) (opens the original)
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If you’re a new subscriber, we were workshopping an idea for how to spread out risk with 10 theoretical entries in the Circa Survivor contest. Upsets have been so rampant that only two of those 10 would still be alive. You probably know that many big favorites have been upset this season (the LA Chargers twice). That wreaked havoc with all sort of plans… Read more
How MLB Sharps are Betting Thursday’s Phillies/Braves Finale (10/1) (opens the original)
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I waited a bit longer than planned to post this sharps report because I wanted to give sharps more time to bet the game. Trying to track the market right now is such a mess. It really doesn’t matter where a game “opened” because it’s going to settle some place else once pitching plans are better-known. And, that adjustment isn’t from “sharp betting” so … Read more
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