HeyJaredFidenza Macro
Global macro views from a trader with over two decades of institutional trading experience. Multiplied initial capital by 1000x with 100% skin in the game. Readers include hedge funds, banks, independent traders, and sovereign wealth managers.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 11
- Latest publication
- Oct 1, 2026
- Audience
- Checking…
- Earliest in this view
- Aug 31, 2026
Latest issues
More to go in Treasury yields (opens the original)
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Most investors look at the 10-year Treasury yield as a single variable affecting the economy and the markets. CNBC shows the level and whether it’s moving up or down, and based on the prevailing narrative in the financial press, investors try to determine whether that is good or bad for their portfolio. What many people don’t know is that the Treasury yield curve tells a much richer story than that. It paints a picture of what kind of global macro regime we’re in and where we are in the business
Fidenza Macro meetup, Singapore Oct 8 (opens the original)
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I’d like to announce the annual Fidenza Macro meetup in Singapore, on October 8 at 5:30 pm. You can sign up on Luma here. Drinks and canapes will be provided. Previous meetups have been a great opportunity to network with other traders and investors, ask me questions, and share ideas. There will also be a short presentation on how to use AI for investing and trading. Hope to see some of you there!-Geo
The rest of my AI portfolio (opens the original)
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The AI sector is coming back from the dead and the charts are waking up. SMH has broken out of a cup-and-handle base, which suggests that the Situational Awareness unwind was just a technical deleveraging event and a local top rather than the top of the AI super-cycle. The 540 to 600 range in SMH from August to September represents a period after the deleveraging flows had subsided and when buyers and sellers were mostly in balance. The market was ranging with indecision on whether the adoption
Going long AI infrastructure again (opens the original)
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Last Friday I wentlong AI infrastructure and semiconductor names again after getting out in June and sidestepping the current drawdown. I posted the decision in the subscriber chat as the timeliest way to inform the paid subscriber community.<a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!62Y-!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa8e4d1c5-3149-457e-8532-096565738f28_1110x608.png"
Post FOMC - cautiously bullish (opens the original)
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Last night’s FOMC dots and Warsh’s press conference, along with the market’s reaction, were as hawkish as can be. Not only did the Fed hike by 25 bp (as expected), the median voter also supported another hike in 2026 and eight voters supported an additional hike in 2027. The SOFR market went as far as to price in 3.5 more hikes over the coming 12 months on top of the one that the Fed delivered last night. The market initially responded by selling equities and buying USD, but both moves have reve
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