HeyJaredFedWatch Advisors Notes
Daily commentaries about markets, macro, Fed, data, earnings, stocks & bonds, politics and crypto. FedWatch Advisors: https://fedwatchadvisor.com/
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 23
- Latest publication
- Sep 30, 2026
- Audience
- Checking…
- Earliest in this view
- Sep 9, 2026
Latest issues
In AI Agreement (opens the original)
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The White House struck a principle‑based deal with major tech firms, outlining a four‑tier safety regime—internal tests, independent audits, board‑level oversight, and recurring cross‑company standards meetings.It’s a “morally binding,” not legal, agreement, but includes a pledge to stop models from hacking or accessing systems in unintended ways.FedWatch Advisors Notes is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work,
The Leaked IPO (opens the original)
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AI is now everywhere, and in yesterday’s speech, Lisa Cook made that very clear. In her view, AI affects nearly every aspect of the Federal Reserve, including monetary policy, financial stability, bank supervision, and financial market infrastructure.Cook elaborates on what AI means for the Fed’s dual mandate. Unlike the traditional Fed Sentiment Index score, which measures the speech’s tone, I introduce an AI-specific aspect for each policy component. What is notable is that the “AI-focused sco
Forward Guidance Biz (opens the original)
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Since the 10‑year pushed through 5%, the S&P 500 has climbed 1.6%, with Tech up 3% and semis surging 14% (now fueled by a $150bn monster buyback). The Russell 2K and Dow are slightly negative, but the pullbacks are minimal. Interest rates are higher, but they don’t seem to cause a problem for markets, just yet.Forward guidance is playing a bigger role than the headlines imply. This week alone features 20 Fed speaking events, and six of them touch directly on the economic outlook — the kind of re
The 6% Handle (opens the original)
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The on‑again, off‑again Iran situation—with conflicting reports that talks are continuing, a seven-day deal was rejected, and bombing resumed after the midterms—is producing mixed reactions across the “open‑during‑the‑weekend” markets.On HyperLiquid, Brent slid about $2 on the Axios headlines, while prediction‑market odds for the Strait reopening a week from “talks later this week” are still under 2% (Figure 1). Markets still embed the view that if the Strait reopens, oil
2007 Redux (opens the original)
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It was an old-fashioned one; bonds headed into the week unprepared for surprising economic data.Positioning was heavily skewed toward long duration — real‑money accounts had rebuilt long‑end exposure, macro funds were running duration longs and yield curve steepeners, and CTAs had mechanically added duration as trend signals flipped positive — leaving the market crowded and fragile.FedWatch Advisors Notes is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and suppo
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