HeyJaredFallacy Alarm
Blending single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful bull and bear cases.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 11
- Latest publication
- Sep 21, 2026
- Audience
- Checking…
- Earliest in this view
- Jul 8, 2026
Latest issues
🔎Ten messages from the past (opens the original)
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My articles typically follow this structure: Pick an economic or financial market topic that is controversial and important. And then provide a perspective that is differentiated and ideally unique. Today’s article will be a bit different. I will present older articles again that I consider evergreens with a much longer shelf life than others.Fallacy Alarm is nearing its five year anniversary. I published my first articles around Christmas 2021. In total, I have published 385 pieces since then,
🔎September 2026 Market Strategy (opens the original)
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In my August 2026 Market Strategy, I pointed to continued strong risk appetite among investors as the key driver for rising interest rates and rising earnings growth expectations. Fiscal liquidity creation remains as a strong underlying current to fuel the bull market. On top of that, corporations are creating additional liquidity by selling equity and debt, which is then used to grow earnings and attract further demand for their capital.Actual demand from real people buying real products remain
🔎The bond market is speaking. (opens the original)
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TLDR SummaryFor a country like the US, long-term government bond yields will always gravitate towards long term nominal GDP growth expectations.Nominal GDP growth consists of real GDP growth and inflation. Therefore, for fiscal deficit spending to drive interest rates higher sustainably, it must have a net positive effect on real growth and on inflation.Fiscal deficit spending is first and foremost wealth redistribution. It doesn’t create any wealth. It primarily transfers it from some people to
🔎The golden age of customer relationships? (opens the original)
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TLDR SummaryThe most defensible assets are those that are hard to replicate. Most tangible assets are fairly easy to replicate these days due to automation technology. Therefore, the lion share of value creation will likely continue to happen in intangible assets.However, the arrival of AI is disrupting the resilience of many intangible assets as well. … Read more
🔎August 2026 Market Strategy (opens the original)
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In my July 2026 Market Strategy, I pointed to cracks in the AI Trade and the Debasement Trade. I expected that these cracks would likely soon open further alongside weakening GDP growth and falling interest rates, which would then rotate investor capital from B2B stocks to B2C stocks. Let’s see how the picture has evolved since then.Share<h
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