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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable.
- Indexed episodes, last 90 days
- 41
- Latest publication
- Sep 29, 2026
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- Jul 3, 2026
Latest episodes
The Game Was Rigged in Their Favor. 28% Went Bust Anyway | Kris Abdelmessih on How to Size Bets (opens the original)
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How much of your portfolio does a good investment idea deserve? Kris Abdelmessih of Moontower joins Matt Zeigler to explain why having an edge is only part of the decision: position size can determine whether favorable odds translate into long-term growth or damaging losses. Through a coin-flipping experiment and everyday examples, Kris makes the Kelly Criterion accessible without a complicated derivation. The conversation explores the difference between expected returns and compounded wealth, w
We Asked the Data Journalist Who Rebuilt the Jobs Report What the Headline Number Hides (opens the original)
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What are headline jobs and inflation numbers missing about the economy investors actually face? Eric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to examine how a changing workforce, rising fuel costs, and differences in household spending could affect inflation, consumer demand, and corporate margins. Using interactive data tools, Eric looks beneath monthly payroll reports, maps changes in America's labor force, and traces how diesel prices can work their way into retail prices. He also shar
He Lost $157,000 in 3 Minutes | Jack Raines on the Lesson Winning Never Taught Him (opens the original)
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Jack Raines turned $6,000 into roughly $400,000 trading SPACs, then lost $157,000 in three minutes after taking a very different bet. The author of Young Money joins Matt Zeigler to discuss what that experience taught him about investing risk, the urge to chase more, and the time a growing portfolio can cost you. The conversation follows Jack Raines from SPAC warrants and market narratives to a broader question: how do you allocate money, time, and risk to build a life you actually want? They ex
The AI Gap Is Closing | Jason Hsu on China, Momentum Crashes and the S&P’s Seven-Stock Bet (opens the original)
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Jason Hsu, founder and CIO of Rayliant Global Advisors and co-founder of Research Affiliates, joins Excess Returns to discuss the US-China AI race, the economics of AI spending, and what market concentration means for investors. We explore China's energy and open source advantages, opportunities in Chinese stocks, and how factor investing and machine learning can help build more diversified portfolios. Rayliant Global Advisors https://rayliant.com Rayliant on X https://twitter.com/rayliant Topic
David Rosenberg on Why He Wants the Bonds Everyone Hates — and Where He's Hiding in Stocks (opens the original)
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David Rosenberg returns to Excess Returns to explain his bullish case for Treasury bonds, why he expects inflation and economic growth to slow, and the risks he sees in an AI-driven stock market. The Rosenberg Research founder joins Matt Zeigler to discuss consumer spending, Federal Reserve policy, gold, international stocks, and how he translates his economic outlook into a diversified portfolio. Recorded September 16, 2026, before the Federal Reserve's policy announcement. David Rosenberg on T
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