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- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 24
- Latest publication
- Sep 29, 2026
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- Sep 13, 2026
Latest issues
The Game Was Rigged in Their Favor. 28% Went Bust Anyway | Kris Abdelmessih on How to Size Bets (opens the original)
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How much of your portfolio does a good investment idea deserve? Kris Abdelmessih of Moontower joins Matt Zeigler to explain why having an edge is only part of the decision: position size can determine whether favorable odds translate into long-term growth or damaging losses.Through a coin-flipping experiment and everyday examples, Kris makes the Kelly Criterion accessible without a complicated derivation. The conversation explores the difference between expected returns and compounded wealth, wh
Full Transcript: Kris Abdelmessih on Bet Sizing and Risk (opens the original)
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Matt: You’re watching Excess Returns. I’m Matt Zeigler, joined today...We’re reviving this. This isn’t quite Teach Me Like I’m Five, but this is definitely teach me something, because there was an amazing essay. We ran it on Panoptica. If you haven’t seen it yet, “After This, You’ll Size Bets in Your Head.” That’s a promise I can get behind. Moontower’s own Kris Abdelmessih, welcome back to Excess Returns.Kris: Thanks, Matt. It’s good to be here.Matt: I’m super excited about this. Number one,
Rates Are Spiking. The S&P Is One Big AI Bet. What If Your Biggest Risk Is What You Don't Own? (opens the original)
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Do you understand the risks in your portfolio, or just the labels on your investments? This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap explores how index concentration, changing bond yields, and lessons from great investors can challenge the assumptions behind your investing decisions.Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler revisit conversations with Andy Constan, Jason Hsu, Jack Raines, and Gary Mishuris. They discuss what Treasury buybacks can actually accomplish, why owning the S&P 500 may leave you exposed to
Full Transcript: Weekly Wrap on Bonds, AI, and Investing Lessons (opens the original)
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Jack: Welcome to the Excess Returns Weekly Wrap. I’m Jack Forehand, and I’m joined by the man who is responsible for me having “Scenes from an Italian Restaurant” in my head for the past week and not being able to get it out. So if you could make the bottle of red and the bottle of white stop, man, it would be fantastic.Matt: I wish I could. The worst part about that song is that opening line. That’s the part that haunts me too. I’m right there with you.Jack: And it’s like 13 minutes or somethin
Jobs Look Strong. Workers Are Disappearing | Why Eric Pachman is Watching Diesel Prices (opens the original)
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What are headline jobs and inflation numbers missing about the economy investors actually face? Eric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to examine how a changing workforce, rising fuel costs, and differences in household spending could affect inflation, consumer demand, and corporate margins.Using interactive data tools, Eric looks beneath monthly payroll reports, maps changes in America’s labor force, and traces how diesel prices can work their way into retail prices. He also share
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