HeyJaredEscalation Trap
The Escalation Trap equips you with the frameworks to recognize when conflicts are shifting phases, anticipate the pressures driving escalation, and make clearer decisions before volatility hardens into irreversible commitments.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 24
- Latest publication
- Sep 30, 2026
- Audience
- Checking…
- Earliest in this view
- Sep 7, 2026
Latest issues
THE MIDTERMS AND THE NEW FACE OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE (opens the original)
Read excerpt
My live briefing on what to watch as America heads into the 2026 midtermsI’m sharing the full video of my recent Escalation Trap Live Briefing: “The Midterms and the New Face of Political Violence.”I gave this briefing because the political-violence problem is changing—and the 2026 midterms are becoming the next major test.We are now just weeks from Election Day.Across the country, election officials are preparing for scenarios that would have seemed extraordinary only a few years ago: threats a
BREAKING ANALYSIS: OCTOBER 1 — IRAN’S ESCALATION DEADLINE (opens the original)
Read excerpt
BLUF: Iran’s 45-day deadline to the United States expired today—and at the same moment, Tehran is moving toward the most consequential nuclear decision since the war began.On August 16, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council decided that if Washington did not lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports within 45 days, Tehran would retain the option of launching renewed attacks against U.S. forces. That clock has now run out.Now Iran’s parliament is considering a “triple-urgency” bill to withdraw
Why the Iran War Won’t End (opens the original)
Read excerpt
With U.S.–Iran negotiations at the UN going nowhere, many are wondering why the war won’t end with a reasonable compromise.My lengthy discussion of this with Mario not long ago explains the core issue:Both sides need to agree on the balance of power.In the discussion, I argue that President Trump’s desire to “get the hell out” of the Middle East is being undermined by a fundamental “smart person’s mistake”:Miscalculating the actual balance of power in favor of a “deal” framework
Link for Yesterday’s Live Briefing Video (opens the original)
Read excerpt
Hi Folks,There was a glitch and many could not watch the video because the link Substack sent did not work.Here is a working link: Read more
Link for Live Briefing Tonight at 7pm ET (opens the original)
Read excerpt
https://open.substack.com/live-stream/377984?utm_source=live-stream-scheduled-upsell Read more
Publishing over time
Last 90 days. Choose a month to open its work.
Recurring subjects
Named in the text we hold. One piece can cover several.
Audience
No verified audience measurement yet.
About this data
Counts cover the work we have indexed. Tone needs enough text and a confident classification. Excerpts and episode notes are not full articles or transcripts.
Identity or attribution wrong? Suggest a correction.