HeyJaredEPB Research
Economics and business cycles for asset managers & cyclical business owners.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 7
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- Sep 14, 2026
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- Jul 14, 2026
Latest issues
The Economy Can’t Sustain Positive Real Interest Rates Like It Used To (opens the original)
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New to EPB Research? Every Sunday, I publish a free research note on where the business cycle stands, what is changing, and whether recession risk is rising or falling.Subscribe to the free Sunday newsletterInvestors often judge whether monetary policy is restrictive by comparing today’s interest rates with historical levels.But nominal interest rates are not an apples-to-apples comparison.The real interest rate, or the nominal interest
Housing Has Been Weak for Years. Why Hasn’t It Caused a Recession? (opens the original)
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Housing has been one of the weakest parts of the economy since the Federal Reserve began tightening monetary policy in 2022.Residential investment contracted, housing activity slowed, and homebuilder profit margins fell sharply.Yet despite several years of housing weakness, the broader economy never entered recession.This raises two important questions. Why hasn’t the housing downturn spread to the rest of the economy, and does housing still drive the business cycle?The answer is that housing re
Corporate Profits Doubled. Why Didn’t Household Income Fall? (opens the original)
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After-tax corporate profits averaged 5.1% of GDP from 1985 through 1995.Over the twelve quarters ending in Q2 2026, after-tax corporate profits averaged 11.9% of GDP.Relative to the size of the economy, the after-tax corporate profit share more than doubled over the last 30 years.<div class="image2-inset"
Prometheus: In Conversation With Eric Basmajian (opens the original)
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Last week, I joined Prometheus Research for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy, business cycle, and markets.Prometheus approaches macro from a systematic perspective, and while our frameworks don’t always lead to the same conclusions, comparing them made for a valuable discussion.We spent more than an hour discussing why this economic cycle has behaved differently from past cycles, the role of profit margins in preventing weakness from spreading, inflation and the post-COVID economy, hou
The AI Boom Isn't an Investment Boom (opens the original)
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Everyone is arguing about whether the AI investment boom is a bubble, and the debate is reasonable. Investment in computer equipment has exploded from 0.5% of GDP to 1.3% in under three years, surpassing even the dot-com peak. It is one of the most aggressive booms in the history of US investment.<div class="ima
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