HeyJaredEconomics for Investors
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- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 17
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- Sep 29, 2026
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- Aug 20, 2026
Latest issues
Deep Dive: Treasury selling continues--and could stretch into October, the worst month for bonds (opens the original)
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Yields on the U.S. Treasury’s longest-dated bond rose for a sixth straight day, crossing another key threshold amid a deepening selloff across global debt markets.The yield on the 30-year Treasury closed at 5.57% after touching 5.61% on Tuesday, a level last seen in 2002. The yield on the 10-year closed at 5.24%. The 5-year closed at 5.05%.<a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iVIY!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstac
Applied Economics: The Fed is less inclined to look through the Iran war energy shock (opens the original)
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The inflation debate at the Federal Reserve has been whether supply-side shocks such as the closing of the Strait of Hormuz to oil and petrochemical tankers should be treated as one-off events. And whether the Federal Reserve should look through these supply side shocks and somehow endeavor to discover the real underlying inflation rate in the economy.<a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!N8p_!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%
Applied Economics: The debt rout includes AI (opens the original)
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On Thursday Oracle’s (ORCL) credit default swaps spiked to record highs. Investors are worried at the size of Oracle’s debt load. And wonder if profits will arrive early enough to meet the debt burden.<img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="910" src="
Deep Dive: Treasury selling is getting serious (opens the original)
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Another day, another 9-basis-point jump in the yield for 10-year Treasuries. The yield hit 5.20% today and is now up 51 basis points in a month and 106 basis points, that’s a little more than a full percentage point, in a year. (Remember rising yields mean falling bond prices.)These are extraordinarily big moves in the normally slow-moving Treasury market. And this high degree of volatility is itself producing worry and hedging and selling in the bond market.Yesterday’s, Wednesday’s, really weak
Applied Economics: Why, in this market and economy, I hate bond funds and bond ETFs; why I love the 2-year Treasury; and why I feel “meh” about the 10 year (opens the original)
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Let me be clear. I don’t hate bonds. Certainly, a 5.00% yield on the 10-year Treasury is, on the surface, very attractive. And portfolios do need diversification beyond 100% stocks. It’s just that I think we are in for a long period of rising interest rates--besides just a quick three interest rate increases and we’re done by the middle of 2027. I mean have you looked at the size of the debt that virtually every government in the world has run up. Plus the future capital demand from aging popula
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