HeyJaredDurdenBTC’s Macro War Room ⚔️
Home of the Macro Regime Engine: 26-year backtest, 8.26% CAGR, <10% drawdown, 74% win rate. The 8th Rule BTC/Gold system. Systematic signals from FRED data, not opinions.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 15
- Latest publication
- Sep 27, 2026
- Audience
- Checking…
- Earliest in this view
- Aug 6, 2026
Latest issues
Issue #72: Blow-Off Top First, Then the Worst Bear Market in 100 Years (opens the original)
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📺 Watch the full breakdown first:This week I dropped the opening portion of my first fundamental thesis, and the video is where the actual argument lives including charts, references, the full 200-year base rate. I spent a lot of time on the video which is why I’m opening with it.DurdenBTC — Survival Is Alpha is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and
Issue #71: FED Hiked. Everything Went Up Anyway. (opens the original)
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The Short VersionRegime: Risk On. No signal change.Gold ($GLD) sold. Scaled to 25% mid-week, fully out by Thursday. Only asset that flipped bearish.Bitcoin and Ethereum still fully long. Crypto had a strong Friday.Fed hiked to 4%. Markets rallied anyway b/c the Fed is still too accommodative.Cash parked in USFR while the gold sleeve sits empty.Portfolio ~+3.3% on the backtest; live book running a bit higher on discretionary plays and the bull p
SIGNAL CHANGE (and a dashboard upgrade!) (opens the original)
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As of yesterday’s close, the dashboard confirmed a new signal and the position is live.I’ll get into the trade, sizing, and execution below. First, the obligatory reminder, because this matters more than any single signal.This is how the system works. We don’t predict. We don’t front-run. We don’t negotiate with the tape. When the conditions are met, we move.. ruthlessly, and without hesitation.The system doesn’t care about your feelings, the news cycle, or what Crypto Twitter thinks. It only ca
SIGNAL CHANGE (opens the original)
Read excerpt
As of yesterday’s close, the dashboard confirmed a new signal and the position is live.I’ll get into the trade, sizing, and execution below. First, the obligatory reminder, because this matters more than any single signal.This is how the system works. We don’t predict. We don’t front-run. We don’t negotiate with the tape. When the conditions are met, we move.. ruthlessly, and without hesitation.The system doesn’t care about your feelings, the news cycle, or what Crypto Twitter thinks. It only ca
Issue #70: Fully Long Into a Rate Hike (opens the original)
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The Short VersionNothing changed. Ain’t that a sight for sore eyes after the volatile summer with weekly signal changes?Regime: Risk On. Goldilocks holds at 13 votes. 25 risk-on to 14 risk-off in totality. Unchanged since May 2025.Fully invested across the board: BTC, ETH, Gold, SPY, QQQ. No signal changes.Bitcoin chopping near $80K after the run off $68K. 8th Rule sits +12.3% YTD against buy-and-hold at -11.7%</str
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