HeyJaredDouglas Schoen
- Indexed articles, last 90 days
- 3
- Latest publication
- Sep 13, 2026
- Outlet visibility, for Boston Herald
- Top 100K sites
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- Aug 9, 2026
Latest articles
Schoen: Will ‘enthusiasm gap’ really help the Dems? (opens the original)
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More than presidential elections, midterms are often decided by which side shows up. With the White House not up for grabs, turnout tends to be considerably lower – in 2018, 49% of eligible voters cast a ballot, versus 64% for the 2024 presidential election. Put another way, persuasion matters less in midterms, and the party whose voters are angrier and more motivated usually walks away the winner. That makes enthusiasm and the gap between voters for both parties one of the surest tells in a mid
Schoen: 2028 election will rewrite parties’ playbooks (opens the original)
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By virtually every standard, the 2028 presidential election figures to be unlike any in modern times. Indeed, it will be the first race since 2016 without Donald Trump on the ballot, and neither party enters it with a clear standard-bearer. Barred from a third term, Trump will leave behind a Republican Party remade in his image but no longer able to lean on him at the top of the ticket. Despite just 40% of all Americans approving of his job performance, 86% of Republicans approve per Emerson, un
Schoen: Don’t count on a ‘Blue Wave’ in November (opens the original)
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That the party holding the White House loses seats in a midterm election is as close to an iron law as exists in American politics. Typically, the more unpopular the president, the worse the drubbing. By that measure, Republicans should face a rout in November. Indeed, since 1938, the president’s party has lost House seats in all but two midterms – 1998 and 2022 – and those were products of extraordinary circumstances, coming right after a failed impeachment attempt and the Sept. 11 attacks, res
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