HeyJaredDollar Watchtower
Horizon scanning major factors impacting US dollar and the global currency system
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 11
- Latest publication
- Sep 28, 2026
- Audience
- Checking…
- Earliest in this view
- Jul 8, 2026
Latest issues
Dollar view capitulation (opens the original)
Read excerpt
Growth storyThe street has been consistently wrong on the US growth story and suspicious of the earning story. This has led to a series of bad calls on the USD, beginning with the overreaction to tariffs in 2025 through to net assessment on SoH closure this year. Rising US yields were always signs of pending fiscal armageddon and de-dollarisation, not a shift in US growth regime. This of course led to repeated fails on USD directional calls. In addition to failed calls on strength of the US stor
Dollar trading in October (opens the original)
Read excerpt
Historical patternsIt is never wise to simply trade historical patterns. There is just not enough information in a single time series, whether it is volatility or index price change, etc. However, if you can extract information out of the historical pattern, it is useful as a starting point to a fresh analysis in the present. The month of October is notorious for stock market crashes; 1907, 1929, and 1987. The Stock Trader’s Almanac claims that 12 post-WWII bear markets ended in October. Septemb
USD: equity market = trend, Fed credibility risk still small (opens the original)
Read excerpt
The capital markets superpowerAs time and numerous challenges to the USD have printed over the past two years, its continued strength has perplexed many. The flood of debasement and de-dollarisation theses have given way to more traditional flow analysis. The Yen’s strength following FX interventions and gradual rate hikes has also undermined structural bearish dollar arguments, as Japan’s fiscal position and negative real rates position are even worse. The correlated or parallel crash thesis is
The dollar choice everyone has to make (opens the original)
Read excerpt
The mother of all resolution windowsWhen markets are trending and momentum is accelerating it is easy to find things to write about on your current thesis. When you arrive at an important juncture between major clashing themes & narratives, the market settles into an unnerving range that is both hard to describe in new terms or to wait patiently for resolution.Resolution has become my new favourite word. When the world is so divided and both sides cling to their beliefs stubbornly, then only res
Politics seize the dollar narrative again (opens the original)
Read excerpt
US economic performanceThe US has had a solid economic year so far in 2026, with most Wall street forecasts raised to 2.5% now for Q3. The unwind of huge gov spending that lifted GDP growth is complete. Gov consumption over 3% of GDP in 2023 & 24 has now dropped to near zero (0.4). The tariff shock from 2025 absorbed. 2026 has marked the organic, private-sector led lift off promised. <a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lbgr!,f_auto,q_auto:go
Publishing over time
Last 90 days. Choose a month to open its work.
Recurring subjects
Named in the text we hold. One piece can cover several.
Audience
No verified audience measurement yet.
About this data
Counts cover the work we have indexed. Tone needs enough text and a confident classification. Excerpts and episode notes are not full articles or transcripts.
Identity or attribution wrong? Suggest a correction.