HeyJaredDefy the Odds
Systematic macro research, capital flows, and actionable trade and investment ideas. For serious investors who want an edge, not opinions.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 21
- Latest publication
- Oct 1, 2026
- Audience
- Checking…
- Earliest in this view
- Aug 22, 2026
Latest issues
Market Rotation: The Bet Behind Every Trade (opens the original)
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There is an important concept in investing called market rotation. It sits at the heart of how I read the market. You may not use the term, but it affects your investment process more than you think.Are you a deep value investor waiting for undervalued stocks to get recognised? You’re waiting for a rotation to turn in your favour.Do you buy quality companies because they can weather difficult conditions? You’re betting that investors will reward their resilience.Do you buy the dip in the previou
How High Can Real Rates Go Before Something Breaks? (opens the original)
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This post is the foundation of the week. The market big picture from a systematic framework: where we are in the cycle, where we are going, when to be careful, and when the nowhere-to-hide moment arrives. Which assets to favor and which to avoid, the setups the framework generates, and the positioning view that ties it together.Short on time? Skip to the Positioning Overview.In the last month
The Market Is Running Out of Alternatives (opens the original)
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How to use the Intermarket Macro MapThis is the foundation of my market work. Every week, I put equities, bonds, currencies and commodities through the same framework. It forces me to follow the evidence, especially when it challenges the story I want to believe. Most of my trade and article ideas start here.For longer-term positioning, the Map helps identify emerging leadership, durable trends and changes in the conditions supporting them. For swing trading, it helps distinguish pullbacks withi
Gold: The Signals Before the Next Big Move (opens the original)
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After we caught the bottom of the gold rally in July, we had to take profits on some of our gold trades over the past few weeks, even though we didn’t want to.The reasons were simple. Our risk assessment told us to:Real rates moved beyond the levels we thought they would hold.The relationship between gold and the term premium did not improve, despite some initially encouraging signs. The debasement trade did not return.Now it’s time to use our gold framework and the analogy with 2022 to map
Dollar: The Rules of the Game Have Changed (opens the original)
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When it comes to the dollar, there is always a heated debate about the debasement trade and the dollar’s demise, but the picture is more nuanced than that.Concerns about government debt are just one of many factors affecting it. Growth and interest rate differentials, capital flows, terms-of-trade shocks, and investors’ risk-off behavior are the main drivers of the dollar in the short and medium term. That’s why the dollar bounced off an 18-year trendline, despite all the bearish sentiment towar
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