HeyJaredDave's Substack
I find overpriced football odds on a diverse range of markets and then teach you how to do the same // 13 years experience studying the market everyday Check out my older articles for an education on different football markets.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 11
- Latest publication
- Sep 30, 2026
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- Earliest in this view
- Jul 9, 2026
Latest issues
The Noise Off the Pitch: Is Arsenal's Title Push Becoming Inevitable? (opens the original)
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I’m starting to wonder if the revelations of the last week are giving Arsenal a firm push towards another Premier League title.Even if there’s no points deduction this season, we can’t pretend that off field matters of this magnitude don’t impact players. Can it possibly create a siege mentality where it’s City vs everyone else? The anger and sense of victimhood spurring them on? Pep Guardiola was a master at this, can Maresca follow in those footsteps?Maybe the messaging from the hierarchy is s
EFL Selections - Header & Outside The Box Markets (opens the original)
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Pictured shot maps account for just League 1 and League 2 data, not other comps, hence it will seem like there are differences between the numbers I mention and the numbers you see (Source: FobMob)Plymouth vs BurtonHarvey White (Plymouth) to score outside the box at 16/1We had a winner on him last week at 20/1, he’s now taken on a whopping 19 shots outside the box in just 778 minutes this season (all comps), scoring twice. Scored 3 goals outside the box for Stevenage last season, he’s now arguab
Reflections From My First 100 Days of Charging for Tips (opens the original)
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I’ve been stewing on this topic for a good few weeks, and hesitated about whether to write about it. But I want to create a raw and authentic narrative - one that is entirely consistent with my own experience of gambling, and now, charging people for tips.In some ways, this is partly like a journal, a way for me to make sense of my thoughts and experience, and hopefully it can help you too. I’m also a little bit paranoid that people find these pieces a little bit self indulgent and lacking self
The Edge Nobody Believes Is There (opens the original)
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To all our new readers who have joined the community recently - welcome. With so many new faces here, I wanted to share a longer piece on our core philosophy, the psychology of the crowd, and what it actually takes to find an edge in these markets.I was at a wedding abroad in Greece last week, and inadvertently did some market research without ever intending to. The research came to my door, I didn’t have to seek it out.Dave's Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new po
'Keeping It Simple' - Season Bets 2026/27 (opens the original)
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I did intend to get this published much earlier in the week, but after a rigorous padel and football session on Monday, and without taking on sufficient fluids, I ended up with sunstroke which left me Ko’d for a couple of days. I am changing up my approach this season for these particular markets. Pre-match player prop markets have delivered in such an incredible way for me over the last couple of years that I’d rather pour a large percentage of my capital into those instead. But it’s also a con
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