HeyJaredCycles Edge
Our goal is to help people Make Money in the markets using Cycles, Seasonality, Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Inter-market Analysis, Market Internals & Macro. We take a "Use What Works" approach to provide a Timing Edge in Financial Markets.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 13
- Latest publication
- Sep 30, 2026
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- Earliest in this view
- Aug 11, 2026
Latest issues
The US Bond Market Is Cracking... (opens the original)
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Borrowing long got expensiveThe US government is paying far more to borrow for 30 years than it did a few years ago. In July 2020, the 30-year Treasury yield was 1.19%. Today it’s around 5.5%.Some of that is inflation and the Fed. But most of it is something called the term premium. That’s the extra return investors demand for locking their money up for 30 years, instead of lending short-term and rolling it over.Bloomberg’s estimate of the term premium went from -1.39% to 1.44% over that stretch
4 Trade Setups - Money Making Opportunities (opens the original)
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Note: Every now and then we like to give all our members very actionable Trade setups in a very concise format. This is one of those instances!We’ll only cover the details you require to execute the Trade instead of spending time covering what each of these companies do and why it’s an attractive bet. But feel free to ask us about any of them via the comments section.Trade Idea 1: Penguin Solutions (PENG)Position: LongReasoning: Double bottom at support, break above downtrend line, daily RSI hel
Extreme Sentiment (opens the original)
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Last Wednesday coincided with both VIX Expiration and FOMC Day. Following the Fed’s first interest rate hike since July 2023, the S&P 500 fell 0.44% on the day, bringing it down 3.82% overall from its August 2026 high. Sentiment turned intensely negative as the AAII Sentiment Survey jumped to 53.3% bearish—well above its historical average. Given that the market often moves counter to crowd consensus, a relief rally next week wouldn't be surprising.<a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" hr
FOMC Incoming (opens the original)
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The dreaded day after Labor Day arrived, and the market dropped slightly—less than 2% over three days. However, Friday's rally recovered 62% of that decline. This tells me institutions are holding off on real portfolio moves until Wednesday's FOMC rate decision, which should serve as the primary market catalyst.The FedWatch Tool is now pricing in an 87% chance of a 25 bp hike on Wednesday. However we’ll have to see if this causes a market rally or drop. The McClellan Breadth Oscillator appears o
The Cycles Guide (opens the original)
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Fixed economic Cycles refer to the concept that economic expansions and contractions occur in a regular and predictable pattern with somewhat fixed durations.According to this theory, there is a predetermined cycle of booms and busts in the economy, characterized by periods of growth followed by periods of contraction.Understanding these periods can help us be on the right side of the market, telling us when to go aggressive and when to become defensive.Internal factors within the economy, such
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