HeyJaredClimate on the Ledger
Exploring how physical climate exposure impacts operations and balance-sheets.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 7
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- Sep 28, 2026
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- Jul 14, 2026
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The two sided impact of El Niño (opens the original)
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TL;DREl Niño is producing opposite hopes on either side of the world. In India, Maharashtra declared 265 of its 358 sub-districts drought-affected after a monsoon that has delivered 18.8% less rain than average, and the national government cut import duties on cooking oils to hold down prices. In Argentina, 70% of the core farming region starts spring in water shortage or drought, and forecasters expect El Niño to bring above-normal rain from October.In the United States, new federal rules cut C
Water is the binding constraint (opens the original)
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TL;DRWater is the binding constraint across industry, shipping and farming this week. In Indonesia, a drought linked to El Niño has held a new nickel processing plant to about 30% of its capacity, while the country’s largest nickel complex has warned of cuts of 30 to 40% if it cannot find more water. In Panama, the canal has reduced daily crossings to 32 and will cut the maximum depth for the largest ships again on 1 October. In France, the sugar beet crop is forecast to be the smallest since 19
Summer’s harvest damage is getting counted (opens the original)
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TL;DRClimate stress on agricultural output is the main story this week. USDA cut its US corn crop forecast by 213 million bushels and cotton by 3%, with heat and drought in Kansas named on the ground as a cause. On the other side of the Atlantic, France recognised 2026 drought crop losses in 18 departments, opening the way to farmers' compensation. This direct revenue challenge for farmers is compounded by continued high energy costs, with diesel at record prices and oil above $100. Axios report
The hottest grain-fill in thirty years (opens the original)
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TL;DRThe El Niño index is continuing to strengthen, rising from +1.40 to +1.80 in its latest measurement. The US Climate Prediction Center’s standing assessment gives it a greater than 90% chance of becoming “very strong” and a 69% chance of exceeding anything recorded since 1950.The US Southern Plains, where hard red winter wheat is grown, recorded a level of extreme heat seen in only about 2% of the past thirty years. Finally, the markets are showing signs of nervousness where small informatio
The storms found the expensive postcodes (opens the original)
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TL;DRA high-end derecho tore through the Chicago metropolitan area on 11 August with gusts up to 97mph, part of an outbreak that Guy Carpenter says could rank among the ten costliest US severe convective storm events on record. Illinois has now confirmed more than 200 tornadoes, an all-time state record matched only by Texas. Drought crop losses were reported this week from the Netherlands, Bosnia, Karnataka, Kenya, Afghanistan and the US Corn Belt. And in the Pacific, Samoa’s new national adapt
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