HeyJaredChina-Russia Report
An independent, nonpartisan perspective on economic, political, and security interactions within and between China and Russia.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 8
- Latest publication
- Sep 28, 2026
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- Earliest in this view
- Jul 27, 2026
Latest issues
Drone-relevant exports to Russia hit record levels in 2026 (opens the original)
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China’s exports of drone-relevant exports to Russia surged in the July – August 2026 window. Below is some data on Chinese exports to Russia of optical fiber cables made up of individually sheathed fibers (Harmonized Tariff System code: 854470); optical fibers, optical fiber bundles, and cables other than 8544 (HTS 900110); and Lithium-ion batteries (HTS 850760). All three categories are dual-use, with large civilian markets, but are, more importantly key inputs into fiber-guided, first-person v
The Table Where It Happened: the Trump-Xi meeting and chips (opens the original)
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Let’s unpack some important Taiwan and AI developments amid the Trump-Xi meeting. The WSJ has a useful explainer on who attended the White House dinner, especially at the Trump-Xi table. Table attendees included President Trump and General Secretary Xi, along with their spouses, Tim Cook of Apple, Elon Musk of xAI, Jensen Huang of NVIDIA, and Lisa Su of AMD. What was said at the table where it happened?Candidly, the seating arrangement doesn’t seem to bode well for chip export controls, which ar
Chinese dual-use exports to Russia are rising (opens the original)
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Greetings from DC, where it was startling to see so many PRC flags yesterday amid General Secretary Xi’s visit to the capital. Instead of nervously pacing around while waiting for AI and Taiwan-related developments from the Trump-Xi meeting, I crunched some data on bilateral China-Russia trade.On the energy side of the business, I wrote an analysis of the potential impacts of a U.S. diesel export ban, along with my co-authors Reid I’Anson, Theo Aldrighi, and Priscila Pu
Beijing is unconcerned about a NATO-Russia contingency, for now (opens the original)
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Neither the PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs nor the authoritative People’s Daily has weighed in on any potential NATO-Russia confrontation over the Baltics, to my knowledge. That’s because while the probability of an imminent contingency in the Baltics is not zero, fears sweeping social media appear highly overstated.Russia’s ability to plan and execute a hybrid operation without substantial advance detection by Western (or PRC) intelligence services is highly doubtful. The Baltics’ own intellig
P(catastrophe) > P(doom) (opens the original)
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P(doom) asks only one question: will misaligned AI kill or permanently disempower humanity? P(doom) is the most important near-term risk factor, but it isn’t the only one. This analysis applies a broader measure, P(catastrophe): the probability that the world suffers a global catastrophe, defined as the death of at least 10 percent of humanity or the irreversible capture of the international system by a single, totalitarian actor whose actions cannot be checked. P(catastrophe) includes not only
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