HeyJaredCF40 Research
Insights on China’s policies and markets from the leading think tank and top economists in China
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
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- Sep 30, 2026
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Three Takeaways from the Two Sets of Additional Policy Measures to Support Investment and the Property Market (opens the original)
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On September 29, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the Ministry of Finance, and other government agencies introduced two sets of incremental policy measures aimed at stabilizing investment and the property market. The first involves further strengthening the PBOC’s support through structural monetary policy instruments. The second marks the first nationwide implementation of interest subsidies for residential mortgage loans.We have three key takeaways from these measures: First, the new measure
U.S. Treasury Yields May Have Peaked for Now, but Longer-Term Upside Risks Remain (opens the original)
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U.S. Treasury bonds have come under renewed pressure recently, with yields climbing rapidly to levels not seen in nearly two decades. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen throughout September and recently crossed the 5% threshold. On September 28, it climbed intraday to its highest level since 2007 and closed at around 5.25%. The 30-year yield reached approximately 5.57%, its highest level since 2004. The two-year yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy expectations, rose to around 4.9
AI Macroeconomics: New Patterns of Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Their Management (opens the original)
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AUTHORSZHANG Bin | Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social SciencesZHU He | CF40 InstituteArtificial intelligence (AI) is a major breakthrough that is reshaping macroeconomic activity. This paper develops a framework of supply shocks, demand shocks, and market mechanisms. It synthesizes and assesses the existing literature and discusses directions for future research and policy implications.<span style="color: rgb(255, 103, 25);
How Much of a Cushion Can China Still Provide for the Global Oil Market? (opens the original)
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KEY FINDINGS ▸Since the outbreak of the U.S.–Iran conflict, global crude oil supply has suffered a severe shock. China responded by sharply reducing crude oil imports. Imports fell to 7.12 million barrels per day (Mbd) in June 2026, 4.62 Mbd below the 2025 average, providing an important cushion for the global market. More recent signals, however, indicate that China is returning to the international market. Two factors are driving this shift. Refined product inventories have fallen to multi-yea
Warsh Nearly Commits to a Rate-Hiking Cycle (opens the original)
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On September 16, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously raised rates by 25 basis points, the Fed’s first increase in three years. We draw four conclusions from the meeting:First, Warsh sees a resilient economy and labor market, inflation above target, and financial conditions that are not yet clearly restrictive. On that logic, September may be only the first step. By the first half of next year, the Fed may need at least three rate increases in total, including this one.Second, th
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