HeyJaredCapital Flows
Capital Flows Research gives active investors a daily, actionable macro map of rates, credit, FX, and equities so their positioning stays aligned with the prevailing regime instead of getting blindsided by it.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 14
- Latest publication
- Sep 29, 2026
- Audience
- Checking…
- Earliest in this view
- Aug 18, 2026
Latest issues
What No One Sees Right Now (opens the original)
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“A lot of people in our industry talk about pattern recognition as a positive attribute. We actually talk about pattern recognition as a negative attribute. It actually prevents you from seeing the world differently. It prevents you from seeing what the world can be.”“Rules are things that we learn as adults. And in reality, when you’re younger, you’re completely unconstrained with regards to the ways in which you see the world. And I actually think naivety is such a powerful thing.”“Rick R
Interest Rate Strategy: How High Can They Really Go? (opens the original)
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The rally in interest rates over the last 3 months has had multiple drivers that are fundamentally misunderstood by market participants. WHEN we do have a drawdown in global equity markets, it will be signaled and confirmed by the underlying drivers in interest rates. I am going to break down these drivers and explain HOW they connect to flows in the market and WHY they frame macro liquidity right now. <a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zr0
The KOSPI Is Where Policy Meets The AI Trade (opens the original)
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Global power forces have always had a dominant role in financial markets since the beginning of time. These create significant macro dislocations that global macro traders take advantage of, since they are directly linked to rates, FX, and global trade expressed in the balance of payments. While most investors are focused on buying the next Mag7 that will provide generational returns, global macro investors are focused on identifying extreme events where credit cycle melt-ups or melt-downs occur
Credit-Fueled Growth Is Moving the Cycle Forward (opens the original)
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The recent pullback in the S&P 500 has primarily been driven by the yield curve bear flattening, which means the short end has repriced significantly more than the long end has priced in additional nominal GDP. In simple terms, this is the Fed playing catch-up after its previous inaction during the inflationary shock and the rise in growth expectations. If you have been following the research pieces I have been putting out, then you know that over the last month I have been bearish bonds and neu
From One Policy Error To The Next (opens the original)
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Macro Risk and Policy ErrorRisk can never be destroyed, only transferred. This is a fundamental presupposition for HOW capital flows through the system and WHY it moves. The challenge begins once you realize that risk is expressed in both nominal and real purchasing power terms across global markets, not in siloed systems.What is the tangible implication of this? The system is ALWAYS operating under both nominal and real constraints. These underlying constraints are the mechanical drivers of cap
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