HeyJaredBoJ Watchtower
From the first foreign BoJ Watcher, interpreting policy signals since 1986
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 11
- Latest publication
- Sep 30, 2026
- Audience
- Checking…
- Earliest in this view
- Jul 10, 2026
Latest issues
How Oct meeting becomes live (opens the original)
Read excerpt
Oct v Dec meetingAll other things equal, the BoJ would not be considering a rate hike in October. It just pushed through a September rate hike without a Bank View update on growth & inflation, and it had to tolerate the optics of two Takaichi-appointed dissenters. And yet, the OIS curve is priced for about 20% chance of a rate hike at the Oct meeting. How does the Oct meeting become live?Domestically, we have September inflation data to print and Q3 tankan survey, both of which will influence Bo
BoJ; hawkish enough (opens the original)
Read excerpt
Just enoughThe BoJ hiked rates, Gov Ueda framed a few new hawkish phrases, Dec meeting is still priced for a hike, the 10Y rallied 5bps and the long end held steady. A decent outcome for the most telecasted rate hike in BoJ history. Everyone from Bessent to the Nikkei told you it was coming. Not surprisingly, the Yen weakened a bit, as such high expectations were going to be difficult to beat, and the Fed just started a new tightening cycle 2 days before. Some bounce in USDJPY was inevitable, bu
BoJ in September: something new (opens the original)
Read excerpt
The quiet monthIf the BoJ hikes rates this week it will be the first time the Bank has hiked rates in the month of September in modern history. Even before formal meeting schedules were introduced (1998), September was a quiet month for monetary policy, where the Bank preferred to allow companies to close half-year books, the Gov to complete its budget process, and for the quarterly tankan survey to be released in early Oct before taking any new policy decisions. Such are the unusual times in th
BoJ likes the new Fed pursuit of optionality (opens the original)
Read excerpt
All meetings liveChairman Warsh’s desire to preserve the Fed’s optionality through less forward guidance is attractive to many central banks, but perhaps many market participants didn’t expect the BoJ to embrace it so quickly. But after 3 years of methodical normalisation, Gov Ueda is ready to restore some normal optionality to Monetary Policy Board (MPB) meetings in Japan as well.He offered up this quote to reporters on the sidelines of the G20:“A rate hike will be discussed thoroughly in every
Entering the BoJ end game (opens the original)
Read excerpt
A different curve end gameThe OIS market remains 85% priced for 1.25% at Sept meeting, 95% priced for 1.5% at Jan-27 meeting. With 10Y JGBs at 3%, this puts market rates where the BoJ needs them to be to start the turn in the Yen weakness trend. Once the Yen turns, a positive disinflation cycle will commence, ie, headline will move below core for the first time since 2022, inflation expectations will peak, negative real rates slowly disappear all along the curve (down to 5Ys at the moment). This
Publishing over time
Last 90 days. Choose a month to open its work.
Recurring subjects
Named in the text we hold. One piece can cover several.
Audience
No verified audience measurement yet.
About this data
Counts cover the work we have indexed. Tone needs enough text and a confident classification. Excerpts and episode notes are not full articles or transcripts.
Identity or attribution wrong? Suggest a correction.