HeyJaredBasedMoney
Markets, macro, socionomics and charts galore. Hunting for based tops and bottoms that generate outsized profits.
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- Sep 30, 2026
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- Aug 27, 2026
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Next Major Opportunity Will Be For Bears (opens the original)
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Click to expand the charts. These are 4 views of SPX. The chart lines are accurate on the daily, where there’s a difference, the daily is correct.The 1929 to 2000 to 2022 line was a former resistance line. It was broken in 2024, goes under in 2025—why bears were thinking 2025 might be more serious than simply tariffs—and then goes above. Taking the optimistic view first. The bull case mainly rests on extreme trend continuation such asAI utopia or massive inflation because GDP growth has been slo
Two Market Tops on the 10-Year (opens the original)
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This may be a momentary blip, but the 10-year yield turned tail at the 2007 peak set in June that month.If it doesn’t hold, the next spot up is about 150 basis points higher at the top from January 2000. The market may or may not translate all that into mortgages, but adding it on entirely would bring the 30-year to around 8.50 percent, about 70 basis points above the October 2023 peak of 7.80 percent. Mortgages are lagging the rate breakout. If that 6.80-percent area on the 10-year doesn’t hold
Tour Through the Assets (opens the original)
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First up, AI. This has all the hallmarks of an investment bubble. Every time this level of concentration happens, there are reasons why it seems like it can go on forever. In the case of LLMs, there is a plausible case for continuation if AI transitions into AGI, but the downside is anything short of that is value destruction. Most stocks are not following the market higher. This does not mean the stocks are in a bear market. The S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index only tells what percentage of the in
Strong Dollar, Rates Rising, NetZero Strategy? (opens the original)
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Market cycles can take precedence over macroeconomics, but one cannot discount the latter overwhelming the cycle. Or the cycle ending because a new order emerges.There was a roughly 18-year dollar cycle that ended in 2020. It consisted of roughly 6-year cycles of bull, bear and consolidation. The U.S. exits the gold standard and plunges into the early 1980s. High interest rates and policy shifts create an extreme bull market in the dollar.The dollar probably didn’t need a Plaza Accord, but it go
Rate Breakout (opens the original)
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Here’s a chart of SPX/GDP. If you believe stocks might get a little cheaper, but not much, sort of like that 1960s chop, then the market will return something like 4 percent annualized, inclusive of dividends. The 10-year yield is blasting above 5 percent. There is an interesting similarity with October 2023. The yield also had a topping signal, pullback and rip to a a new high for the cycle. Another similarity is chart resistance. This is where the rally in rates died in 2023, but the line star
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