HeyJaredAsian Market Sense
A sales traders view on Asian markets and the impact of Macro events.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 26
- Latest publication
- Sep 30, 2026
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- Aug 26, 2026
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Asian Market Sense: Lots of Manufacturing PMI data, Aussie & Indonesia Trade Data, Japan’s Tankan survey. HK closed, China closed until 7 October. (opens the original)
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OverviewToday is the first day of Q4 and investor will be positioning for the year end and 2027.The odds of a Fed rate hike eased on Wednesday. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows traders are pricing in a 35% chance of a quarter-point rate hike next month. That’s down 51% a day ago. Traders are still expecting another hike in December despite the light inflation data Wednesday, but key could be Friday’s jobs report.Key is that inflation expectations remain high but growth remains strong, so now
Asian Market Sense - Huge data day, S Korean pre-market data weak, Aussie inflation, Japanese data and Chinese PMI’s in focus but also a lot more and US PCE data tonight. Last trading day of Q3. (opens the original)
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OverviewTuesday saw a broad market sell-off triggered by continued rising global bond yields and inflation fears. Today is the last trading day of Q3. Markets currently see a 70% probability of a Fed rate hike in October and a 95% chance of an increase in December, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool. That as investors await key economic data, including ADP employment and the PCE data due on Wednesday, and nonfarm payrolls on Friday.In the US Trump rejected the need for AI laws after tech tita
Asian Market Sense: RBA rate decision in focus. S Korean business confidence dropped. More China data ahead. Tonight US JOLT’s and Consumer Confidence data. 5 weeks to Midterms. (opens the original)
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OverviewUS Treasury yields edged higher on Monday as pressure on global government bonds resumed, amid higher oil prices and inflation fears. That is likely to continue to overhang the markets today. Key being the Trump is unprepared to find a solution to the US/Iran war; one stating again that the war will end soon, that the US is winning and that the US has already taken out Iran’s military capabilities. He had said this so often that I don’t think anyone believes it… except maybe Trump himsel
Asian Market Sense - Looking into Q4; Inflation, Wars and US Mid term elections (opens the original)
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OverviewUS / Iran standoff remains in focus, although President Trump is blaming Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refining being the reason for diesel shortages. I doubt people will be convinced by that statement. But it is clear that inflation is being impacted by both wars. The fact that Trump believes he is winning the war with Iran will not help find a solution.Treasury yields remain at highs not seen in years, with traders increasing bets of more Federal Reserve rate hikes due to persistent inf
Asian Market Sense - Data impacting Asia September 28 - 2 October (opens the original)
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OverviewAs we look at the new month ahead and the stat of the final quarter it is worth reminding ourselves of what Warren Buffett’s favourite indicators are doing (these are not daily indicators but they show longer term trends).1. Shiller PE Ratio now 41.48, up from 42.6 last month but still elevated. The long term average is closer to the 17 - 32 range, the reason current readings are elevated is driven in large part by premium valuations in major technology and AI-related stocksBuffett’s vie
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