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- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 10
- Latest publication
- Sep 23, 2026
- Audience
- Checking…
- Earliest in this view
- Jul 21, 2026
Latest issues
Aug PCE Inflation Estimate (opens the original)
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On Wed, Sep 30, a week from now, we will get the Aug PCE Inflation, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. This print will be instrumental in determining what the Fed does next and, as such, it could be a big market mover.Since I started publishing my PCE estimates in Mar 2024, my average error for forecasting headline PCE has been an almost perfect -0.7 bps (-0.007 pp).<a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fet
The Fed Is Hiking on a One-Off (opens the original)
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The Aug CPI has made a lot of waves in the market. It came in line for headline, hotter for core MoM, but in line for core YoY.Now, the question is what that means for the Fed.Arkomina Research is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.<input class="button primary" type="submit" value="Subscribe
Aug 2026 CPI Estimate (opens the original)
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On Friday, Sep 11, we will get the Aug CPI, which will determine whether the Fed hikes rates next week or not. Every CPI report is critically important, but this one is a literal determinant of the Fed’s next move.My average error for estimating headline CPI (based on the last 41CPI estimates from Feb 2023 - Jul 2026; Oct 2025 was not published by the BLS) is almost perfect at -1 bp (-0.01 pp).<a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QgH4!,f_auto
The +162K Jobs Report Is Weaker Than It Looks (opens the original)
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On Friday, we got the Aug Employment Report, which was stronger than expected for payrolls and in line with expectations for the unemployment rate.Although payrolls were much stronger in Aug than in Jul, this report actually supports no change by the Fed more than the one in Jul does.Arkomina Research is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.<in
Jul 2026 PCE Inflation Forecast (opens the original)
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Next Wednesday (Aug 26), we will get the Jul PCE Inflation, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge.Since I started publishing my PCE estimates in Mar 2024, my average error for forecasting headline PCE has been an almost perfect -0.7 bps (-0.007 pp).<a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ENHc!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5558b68d-6210-4b63-8175-177
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