HeyJaredAP Research
Global macro and multi-asset thematics, grounded in active capital allocation. We map the trends driving markets and translate them into tradeable frameworks.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 14
- Latest publication
- Sep 30, 2026
- Audience
- Checking…
- Earliest in this view
- Aug 12, 2026
Latest issues
Bond Voyage (opens the original)
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Bonds are interesting again. That much is hard to dispute. Whether you think yields are attractive, bonds are the worst, or you’re simply on the sidelines watching yields rise without respite, it’s interesting.Investors have been unimpressed, if not outright pained, for years by long-duration exposure. With yields at current levels, locking in coupons by holding bonds makes a reasonable argument. And if yields drop with slower growth or an unexpected move in inflation, bonds’ convexity becomes m
For Whom the Yield Tolls (opens the original)
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As the powers gathered in Washington, seemingly for pleasantries over progress, there was considerably less diplomacy in bond markets. Yields higher again.A confluence of factors soured appetite for bonds on Wednesday, as Flash PMIs showed business activity was running at its fastest pace since July 2021, and a 5-year auction drew weak demand, alongside a further move higher in global yields.In equities, semiconductors and hyperscalers did the heavy lifting. Meta Platforms (META US) soared 11% a
When Hawks Fly, Doves Cry (opens the original)
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US equities finished flat after a volatile stretch, with Wednesday’s first rate hike in more than three years initially pushing stocks lower, before falling oil prices and a rebound in Treasuries helped claw back much of the damage.Importantly, the 10-year Treasury yield moved above 5% for (say the line) “the first time since 2007.” Long-volatility demand remains elevated as a result, with large October and November Treasury straddles showing traders expect rates to remain the main source of cro
The Prisoner’s Dilemm-AI (opens the original)
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The term prisoner’s dilemma describes the decisions and behaviour of individuals who fail to reach a goal because their actions are guided by self-interest. It applies to situations where all involved characters are motivated by selfishness and therefore suffer worse outcomes because of the actions of others.The classic case is where two criminals are arrested and given the opportunity to reduce their sentences by testifying against each other.A current-day illustration is that some of the most
Bonds, Sinking Bonds (opens the original)
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While the summer heat may finally be cooling off here in Europe, it’s hard to say the same is true in markets, especially in global debt.The S&P 500 fell in each of last week’s first three trading sessions, before a Friday rally pared the decline. The percentage of S&P 500 members above the 50-day moving average has declined rapidly over recent weeks. Just 39% of the 500-member gauge now trades above its average.<a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fet
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